Evidence of Police arrests of PPP supporters or organizers in Faisalabad;PPP - IJI confrontations in Faisalabad. [PAK3341]

Faisalabad is located in the Punjab, the provincial seat of Benazir Bhutto's principal political opponent, Nawaz Sharif. The provincial police would be under the jurisdiction of the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI, or Islamic Democratic Alliance, IDA), which won power in Punjab elections in 1988. The following information highlights the political situation in Pakistan and, particularly, in the Punjab. As noted below, the Punjab police entered PPP headquarters in Rawalpindi and arrested one of Bhutto's staff. [ Ahmed Rashid, "War of nerves", Far Eastern Economic Review, 16 March 1989, p. 24.] In October 1989, The Economist reported that federal officials (PPP) have been arrested in Punjab (where the IDA is in power), and Punjab officials have, in turn, been harassed in Islamabad. ["The Difficult Bit: Premier Bhutto Faces Problems in Pakistan", The Economist, 21 October 1989.]

Zia ul-Haq initiated a policy of the gradual Islamisation of Pakistan. [ Anthony Hyman, "The waning of Benazir's honeymoon", The Middle East, May 1989, p. 5, and A. Hyman, "Benazir inherits a divided country", The Middle East, January 1989, p. 17.] Under Zia ul-Haq, Pakistan's "domestic policies reflected the president's Islamic faith, and Islamic laws and customs were elevated to a prominence that formerly had prevailed only in the most orthodox circles." [ Henry Kamm, "Army likely to claim ruler's vast powers", New York Times, 18 August 1988.] Islamic groups fearing a reversal of Islamisation actively revived Islamic sentiment shortly after Zia's death. ["Power up for grabs", p. 13.] For example, fundamentalists organized rallies against Salman Rushdie's book, and urged the government to bring him to Pakistan to be publicly hanged. ["War of Nerves", p. 24.]

The death of Zia ul-Haq, on 17 August 1988, created the opportunity to hold national elections, but there was speculation that his death might also open the door for another military coup. However, democracy prevailed, elections were scheduled for 16 November, and the parties began to organize their strategies.

The Pakistan Muslim League (PML) was the dominant political party in Pakistan from 1986 until 29 May 1988, when Zia ul-Haq dissolved the government of (former) Prime Minister Mohammed Khan Junejo (PML party). Before the end of August 1988, the PML had broken into two factions. [ "Pakistan Moslem League breaks into two factions", Globe and Mail, 27 August 198; Husain Haqqani, "Shifting Sands of Patronage", Far Eastern Economic Review, 22 September 1988, p. 35; Husain Haqqani, "Power up for Grabs", Far Eastern Economic Review, 1 September 1988, p. 12.] The two groups were the "Fida" faction (led by Mr. Fida Muhammad Khan, the former governor of the North-West Frontier Provinces, and Mr Nawaz Sharif, the Chief Minister of Punjab province), and the "Junejo" faction (led by former Prime Minister Mohammed Khan Junejo). The Junejo group joined with the Tehrik-i-Istiqlal and the Jamaat-i Ulemi-i Pakistan on October 9 to form the Pakistan Awami Tehrik (PPA, Pakistan People's Alliance). [ Keesing's Record of World Events, Volume XXXIV, December 1988, p. 36347.] The stated aim of the PPA was to work for an Islamic, welfare, parliamentary system. [ Ibid.] The Fida faction had joined with seven other parties and groups to form the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI, or Islamic Democratic Alliance, IDA). The other parties in the IDA included the Jamaati-i Islami, the National People's Party, the Jamiatul Ulema-e Islam (Darkhwasty Group), the Markazi Jamaat-i Ahle Hadith (Lakvi Group), Jamaat-ul Mashaikh (Sahebzada Fazle Haq Group), Hizbe Jihad, the Azad Group, and the Nizami-i Mustafa Group. [ Ibid.] On 15 October 1988, the Junejo PML faction joined the IDA, and its former alliance partners formed the Pakistan Awami Ittehad. [ Ibid.]

The Pakistan People's Party (PPP), led by Benazir Bhutto, received the most seats during the 16 November elections. However, because the PPP did not have the majority of seats, Ms. Bhutto entered into discussions with smaller parties to form a coalition government. Ultimately, the Mohajir Quami Movement (MQM) added its 13 seats to the PPP's. [ "The Choice of the Nation", Asiaweek, 16 December 1988, p. 24.] There are 237 seats in the National Assembly, of which 205 were contested. [ "Bhutto does her Arithmetic", Asiaweek, 2 December 1988, p. 26. Thirty seats are reserved for women and minorities, and two seats were deferred due to the death of candidates. ] The PPP won 92 seats, and the second place rival, the Islamic Democratic Alliance, led by Nawaz Sharif, won 55 seats, but the Pakistan Awami Ittehad gained only three. [ Ibid. Keesing's (below) maintains that the IDA won 54 seats. Ahmed Rashid, "Testing time, again", Far Eastern Economic Review, 26 January 1989, (the Keesing's article indicates 93).] Nawaz Sharif was the only leader of the IDA to gain a seat in the national assembly. [ Keesing's, p. 36348.] The distribution of the remaining seats is described in the attached article from Keesing's Record of World Events, (December 1988, p. 36348).

The results of the provincial elections proved even more inconclusive. The Chief Ministers of Sindh and North-West Frontier Province are both PPP members. In Baluchistan, however, the IDA candidate forged a shaky alliance with the PPP to become the Chief Minister, and in Punjab, the IDA has firm control of the provincial assembly, with Nawaz Sharif as the Chief Minister. [ Rashid, Ahmed, "The Morning After", Far Eastern Economic Review, 15 December 1988, p. 14.] This is the first time in Pakistan's history that different parties have controlled the National Assembly and the Punjab provincial assembly. The IDA has 108 seats to the PPP's 94 in the Punjab provincial assembly, [ "Testing time, again", 26 January 1989.] and Sharif won an important vote of confidence in the Punjab provincial assembly on 13 March 1989. [ "Friends and foes", 30 March 1989; Fact on File, 21 April 1989, p. 277.] In the past, he has called for a jihad (holy war) against Bhutto, and more recently has been accused of "masterminding the Islamic fundamentalist protests against the government" over the Rushdie affair. [ "War of Nerves", 16 March 1989, p. 23.] The IDA control of Punjab province is seen as a serious challenge to Bhutto's national government because the Punjab is a rich region with almost two-thirds of the country's 100 million people. Punjabis have considerable influence in political, military, and business circles. [ Ibid.]

The military have allegedly supported the IDA and Sharif in a bid to maintain a political balance of power and restrain Bhutto's government. [ "War of nerves", 16 March 1989 p. 24; "Friends and foes", 30 March 1989, p. 28.] An incident reported in March highlights the confidence the IDA feels with respect to its mandate to govern in Punjab province. The Punjab police arrested one of Bhutto's staff at the PPP Rawalpindi office for making "objectionable speeches" against Sharif, but it is not known what form, if any, government reprisal took, as Sharif denied having ordered the raid. [ "War of nerves", p. 24.]

The Muslim fundamentalist challenge to Ms. Bhutto's legitimacy became most vocal at an Islamic conference in Rawalpindi on 27 February, when some of the Muslims in attendance denounced Bhutto as being in violation of the Koran. [ Facts on File, 21 April 1989, p. 278.] The Mullahs (Muslim religious leaders) condemned the liberalization and secularism of Bhutto's government, and the edict they issued prohibits women from occupying positions of leadership in Islamic nations. [ Ahmed Rashid, "War of Nerves", Far Eastern Economic Review, 16 March 1989, p. 24. Other Mullahs present condemned the rulings as an effort to destabilize the government.] In response to the edict, Ms. Bhutto declared that the government would repeal all laws discriminatory to women of Pakistan and verbally condemned the mullahs responsible. [ "War of Nerves".]

On 1 November, Prime Minister Bhutto won a vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly, with a slim margin of only 12 votes. As some of the attached articles from the Far Eastern Economic Review indicate, the IDA has been gaining power at the federal level, and Prime Minister Bhutto must step carefully around Islamic interests.

Please find the results of a database search attached. Very few articles pertaining to the arrest of PPP organizers were retrieved:

-Zahid Hussain, "Supporters Rally for Bhutto; Pakistan", Times, 27 October 1989;

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Bryan Wilder, "Pakistani Premier Bhutto Faces Biggest Political Crisis of Her Tenure", Associated Press, 26 October 1989;
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"The Difficult Bit: Premier Bhutto Faces Problems in Pakistan", The Economist, 21 October 1989.

Additional attachments:

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Keesing's Record of World Events, Volume XXXIV, December 1988, pp. 36347-36348.
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Ahmed Rashid, "War of nerves", Far Eastern Economic Review, 16 March 1989;
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Salamat Ale, "Bhutto Battles on Against Formidable Odds: First Year Report", Far Eastern Economic Review, 4 January 1990;
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"Opposition Provinces Demand More Autonomy", Far Eastern Economic Review, 4 January 1990;
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Salamat Ali, "Indo-Pak River Dispute Becomes a Domestic Issue: Propaganda Barrage", Far Eastern Economic Review, 21 December 1989;
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Salamat Ali, "Bhutto Wins the Battle, but not the War: Breathing Space", Far Eastern Economic Review, 16 November 1989;
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Salamat Ali, "Parties Use Extreme Measures to Ensure Loyalty: Politicians in Purdah", Far Eastern Economic Review, 16 November 1989;
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Salamat Ali, "Punjabi Opposition Flexes its Muscles: A Showdown Looms", Far Eastern Economic Review, 5 October 1989;
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Salamat Ali, "The Sindh Government is Paralysed by Ethnic Disorder: Polarised Politics", Far Eastern Economic Review, 21 September 1989

Please find some additional articles attached, which relate to the situation in Punjab during September 1989. In particular, the article entitled "Officials Praise Bhutto, Criticize Punjab Chief" ([Islamabad], in Urdu, FBIS-NES-89-173, 8 September 1989, p. 55) mentions an interview by the chief of the People's Party in Punjab, Fakhr Zaman, in which he criticizes the Punjab chief minister "for implicating People's Party members and and workers in baseless litigations".

The accompanying articles reflect the growing tensions between the PPP and the Punjab authorities.

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