A professor of political science at the College of Holy Cross in Massachusetts, who specializes in the history and politics of Somalia, stated that although the Afar are represented in the current government, they are treated as second class citizens (14 Oct. 1998). He also stated that their representatives do not wield any political clout, and so the interests of the Afar are not met.

According to a report by the Centre for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM) in Washington,

The Afars of eastern Africa, traditionally nomadic people, have been divided, amongst three states since the independence of Djibouti and Eritrea in 1977 and 1993, respectively. The Afars are a highly cohesive group and they did not support the break-up of their traditional lands into three states (Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eritrea). Between 1991-1994, the Afars in Djibouti were engaged in guerrilla activities, especially in the North, aimed at achieving autonomy from the government. In early 1994, the main Afar rebel group, FRUD [Front pour la restauration de l'unité et la démocratie], split and the faction led by Ougoureh Kefle Ahmed began negotiations with the government. However, sporadic fighting continued by the faction led by Ahmed Dini. A formal peace agreement between the government and Al Mohamed Daoud and Ougoureh Kifle Ahmed's faction was signed in December 1995, and FRUD has become a political party allied with the government (Nance Profile, n.d.).

A report by the Economic Intelligence Unit explains that the split within FRUD was a strategy pursued by President Gouled Aptidon, to co-opt one faction of the FRUD into the government. "The co-opted FRUD faction was transformed into a political party which subsequently allied itself with the ruling Rassemblement populaire pour le progres (RPP) in a stage-managed legislative election last December. In this election the RPP-FRUD alliance gained all the seats in the legislature." The report predicts that armed attacks by the FRUD-Dini faction are likely to continue (2 June 1998).

According to the CIDCM, the Afars continue to be "at risk" in Djibouti. It predicts that their situation depends on the stability of the economic situation and President Aptidon's efforts to integrate them into his government. The CIDCM also forecasts that FRUD-Dini may continue to fight the government although "it does not seem to have great support to do major damage to the government or to destroy the relative stability that currently characterizes the state" (Nance Profile, n.d.).

The Indian Ocean Newsletter of 12 September 1998 supports the above predictions. It states that FRUD-Dini carried out two small operations in the northern part of the country on 7 September 1998. The following day, FRUD reportedly "attacked a remote government garrison at Medeho, a small village in the same region west of Obock."

This Response was prepared after researching publicly accessible information currently available to the Research Directorate within time constraints. This Response is not, and does not purport to be, conclusive as to the merit of any particular claim to refugee status or asylum.

The Economic Intelligence Unit [London]. 2 June 1998. "Djibouti: Country Update." (NEXIS)

History professor specializing in Somalia's history and politics. College of Holy Cross, Massachusetts. 14 October. 1998. Telephone interview.

The Indian Ocean Newsletter [Paris]. 12 September 1998. "Two Small Operations by FRUD." (NEXIS)

Nance Profile. n.d. "The Afar." [Internet] http://www.bsos.umd.edu/cidcm/mar/djiafars.htm [Accessed 23 Oct. 1998].