Deadly escalation by Ugandan ADF rebels in eastern DRC

Crisis Group expert Onesphore Sematumba analyses the operations of the ADF, a rebel group that is pressing its advantage in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo while Kinshasa focuses on the Rwanda-backed M23 insurgency 

By Onesphore Sematumba

Rebels from the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) have intensified attacks on civilians in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), despite a joint Ugandan and Congolese military operation intended to protect the local population. ADF attacks on civilians have escalated dramatically in recent weeks, while the DRC’s diplomatic and political attention has been focused on Qatar’s mediation in Doha between Kinshasa and the Rwanda-backed M23 insurgents. The latter hold territory just to the south of the ADF-affected zone. 

Despite a large Ugandan military deployment, the remaining Congolese troops in the area, and some UN blue helmeted forces, civilians seem to have little or no protection. On the night of 8-9 September, an ADF attack killed 72 people in the village of Ntoyo, near the city of Lubero. A few days earlier, another attack killed around 50 people further north near Beni. This spate of killings has also extended to Ituri Province, where an ADF attack on a church in Komanda killed 43 people on the night of 26-27 July. 

The ADF, which was founded by Uganda fighters in 1995, is now an affiliate of the Islamic State. The group’s modus operandi has shown little variation in its most recent violence. Its fighters attacked in small groups at night with bladed weapons and sometimes assault rifles. 

The ADF’s rampaging occurs against the backdrop of deteriorating security in the region, following M23’s reactivation in southern North Kivu in 2021. The M23 threat has captured much of the Congolese military’s attention. By redeploying many troops further south to battle the M23 Kinshasa has left the ADF more space to operate. 

At the same time, Uganda’s military efforts to support the DRC have waxed and waned. At first, locals applauded Operation Shujaa (“Hero” in Kiswahili) for weakening the ADF. But Uganda’s operations have increasingly focused on areas of strategic interest to Kampala, including gold-mining areas far from where the ADF is preying on civilians. Although the Ugandan military in theory carries out its counter-ADF operations in partnership with its Congolese counterparts, the Ugandans control the field command and decide on the areas of deployment, sometimes taking their Congolese colleagues by surprise.

The ADF’s terrible recent attacks against civilians cannot be explained just as a function of Congolese troops moving south, and Ugandan troops being distracted by other priorities. They also suggest the limits of military campaigns. In the past two years Ugandan led operations have squeezed the ADF out of their camps, killing some commanders and dispersing the rest across Ituri’s vast forests, but recent events prove they have done little to weaken its potency. This suggests that the ADF’s well documented tactics of forging alliances with local ethnic groups, exacerbating ethnic rivalries and locking into regional smuggling networks has given it surprising resilience. Countering their strength will therefore require a more community- based approach – including offering locals economic alternatives to collaborating with the insurgents – in addition to troops on the ground.