Violent clashes between rival armed groups broke out in Tripoli Tuesday night, breaking a relative calm that had reigned in the Libyan capital for the past three years. Heavy artillery fire is now ongoing across the city. On the surface, a turf war is unfolding between groups supposedly aligned with the Tripoli-based government – the interior ministry’s Special Deterrence Force (Al-Rada) and its allies against various units operating under the defence ministry, such as the 444 infantry brigade and the so-called joint forces of Misrata. Both are trying to take control of parts of the city following the killing of the leader of another armed group on Monday. The sudden upsurge in violence has major political ramifications, as one side is critical of Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba, while the other remains loyal to him. 

Tensions started to build in the capital on Monday evening after news broke that Abdel Ghani al-Kekli (also known as Gnewa) had been killed during a meeting with leaders of the defence ministry-linked forces in Tripoli. Gnewa had become one of Dabaiba’s most vocal opponents, even though he headed a militia called the Stabilisation Support Apparatus (SSA), which operates under the authority of the Presidency Council. He challenged the prime minister over appointments in state-owned companies and the allocation of contracts. Just last week, his cronies shot at board members of Libya’s telecommunications holding, allegedly over a contract worth hundreds of millions of euros. 

Gnewa’s violent death left a sudden power vacuum in Tripoli. Two of his loyalists, respectively in charge of the internal intelligence service and of protecting the central bank headquarters, fled the capital. Meanwhile, the SSA’s rank and file stood down, with rival forces moving into their bases without a fight. 

The initial calm was soon dispelled. On Tuesday afternoon, Dabaiba announced that the “time of parallel security systems has come to an end”, ordering a prompt reorganisation of security services in the capital, including prison guards and anti-illegal migrant units. He portrayed the killing of Gnewa as proof that the state was reasserting control over armed groups. Dabaiba’s critics, who for years had blamed him for excessive complacency toward the armed groups, mocked his words. Meanwhile, commanders of Al-Rada, which controls Tripoli’s Mitiga airport and adjacent prison, interpreted Dabaiba’s words as meaning they would be next on the hit list, prompting them to launch an attack on their rivals who had killed Gnewa. 

Neither other armed groups from across western Libya nor forces loyal to the rival east-based government have yet entered the fray. Should they decide to do so, the capital could turn into an urban battlefield, of the sort last seen in 2022. Whether these clashes serve to undermine or consolidate Dabaiba’s authority remains an open question. Either way, residents of Tripoli are yet again victims of violence wrought by forces beyond their control.