Dokument #1153984
Freedom House (Autor)
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Democratic Governance | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
Electoral Process | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
Civil Society | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
Independent Media | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
Local Democratic Governance | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Judicial Framework and Independence | 2.75 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
Corruption | 3.75 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 |
Democracy Score | 2.89 | 2.86 | 3.04 | 3.04 | 3.07 | 3.14 | 3.18 | 3.25 | 3.29 | 3.25 |
NOTE: The ratings reflect the consensus of Freedom House, its academic advisers, and the author(s) of this report. If consensus cannot be reached, Freedom House is responsible for the final ratings. The ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The Democracy Score is an average of ratings for the categories tracked in a given year. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the author(s).
After a turbulent two-year period with two rounds of early elections in 2013 and 2014, Bulgarian politics returned to stability in 2015. A coalition cabinet of four political parties remained in office, promising and partially delivering on major reforms. Legislative support of the coalition, however, remained tenuous as the leading Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) party sought to strike various political deals with each of the other seven parties in the parliament, often appearing to form ad hoc majorities with the opposition. This trend intensified in anticipation of the October 25 local elections. In December, the resignation of the justice minister and a split in one of the governing parties nearly led to the collapse of the government.
GERB reasserted its political dominance in the local elections, which took place peacefully but with some administrative issues. Faced with little competition, GERB won easily in most major cities. The party now dominates the vast majority of local government units: 21 of the 25 regional centers have GERB mayors, and one-third of all councilors were elected from the GERB list. The year also saw the downslide of the long-standing major party on the left as the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) dropped considerably in popularity, losing all eight mayoral positions in the regional centers they had controlled since the 2011 elections. With GERB and the center-right Reformist Bloc (RB) emerging stronger after the elections and the left disintegrating, the polls demonstrated an overall move to the center-right in the country’s political landscape. This development also led many to speculate about an “Orbán-like” turn in Bulgarian politics, with few alternatives to GERB remaining in the country (thus similar to the position of Hungary’s Fidesz party, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán). Still, the need to maintain coalitions with a diverse set of political parties on both the national and local level remains a strong constraint on the positions and policies of GERB. In December, one of the junior coalition partners, RB, was shaken by intra-bloc disagreements as one of its constituents officially sided against the cabinet.
In an unprecedented development, the Turkish-dominated Movement of Rights and Freedoms (DPS) lost two of its regional strongholds for the first time in over 25 years. Following some internal party problems and leadership changes in 2013 and 2014, this could signify a trend of decreasing support for DPS. For years, the DPS has represented the interests of the Turkish minority in the country, maintaining close links with the BSP and participating in several governments. By contrast, the Roma minority—whose votes are prone to clientelistic practices and vote buying—continues to lack political representation in Bulgaria.
During the year, the country’s civil society remained active and capitalized on the momentum it gained in 2013 and 2014. Most policymaking initiatives institutionalized the participation of various citizens and professional organizations in the public debate and discussion of bills. While Bulgaria made no major progress in improving the legislative framework for NGOs, their tangible input into the policymaking process is still a substantial step toward an engaged civil sector.
Judicial reform started in 2015, but it encountered significant difficulties when constitutional changes became necessary. Political compromise seemed to obfuscate some much-needed decisions, but with urging from the European Union (EU), the second half of the year saw a renewed impetus for reform. The bill gave hope for the first real step toward an independent and transparent judiciary in the country. In early December, however, the parliament vetoed the reform’s most important parts, despite popular support. The veto led to the resignation of the justice minister and a virtual halt to the reform process.
Corruption, especially in the judiciary, remained a hot topic in 2015 following major scandals in the preceding years. The cabinet initiated a bill to combat high-level corruption in September, but it was unexpectedly voted down in the parliament with the support of some coalition partners. The issue caused an international stir, but the parliament had yet to take up the matter by year’s end. Links between the political and economic worlds continued to be a dominant topic in the country, and some corrupt practices became even more publicly acknowledged. When corruption was exposed, however, the consequences were few.
Freedom and pluralism in the media continued to decline. A number of print outlets closed because of insolvency, new online resources of questionable quality and professional ethics emerged, and the ownership of print media remained a controversial issue. While variety and competition in television and radio outlets is strong, pressure to support the politically powerful continued to be a daily phenomenon. Ironically, state-owned television and radio channels were reportedly the most likely to report in a pluralistic way.
Internationally, Bulgaria continued its pro-EU foreign policy, while relations with Russia stagnated. The refugee crisis had already struck Bulgaria beginning in 2013 and 2014, so there was no major shock to the system in 2015. Economically, the country remained in a difficult situation, with living standards declining and the economic outlook grim for most people.
Score Changes:
Outlook for 2016: GERB, now in control of all politically relevant institutions, will likely continue to dominate the political system in 2016. Given its trajectory in 2015, the party may try to capitalize on its political presence and reshuffle the coalition. The stability of RB and the smaller coalition partners, both in and out of the parliament, is likely to be crucial for the survival of the cabinet.
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3.50 |
3.50 |
3.50 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
3.50 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
1.75 |
1.75 |
1.75 |
1.75 |
1.75 |
2.00 |
2.00 |
2.25 |
2.25 |
2.25 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
2.25 |
2.25 |
2.25 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
3.50 |
3.50 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
3.75 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2.75 |
2.75 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3.25 |
3.50 |
3.50 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
3.75 |
3.50 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.25 |
4.25 |
4.25 |
Author: Maria Spirova
Maria Spirova is an associate professor of comparative politics and international relations in the Institute of Political Science at Leiden University, Netherlands. She has published on issues related to party development, patronage, minority policy, and ethnic politics in the postcommunist world.
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[3]Rilska Biliana, “Референдумът ще е само за електронното дистанционно гласуване (обновена)” [The referendum will only concern electronic voting (updated)], Dnevnik, 28 July 2015, http://www.dnevnik.bg/bulgaria/2015/07/28/2581202_referendumut_shte_e_samo_za_elektronnoto_distancionno/
[4] Държавната агенция за бежанците при Министерския съвет [The State Agency for Refugees with the Council of Ministers], “Статистически графики 30.09.2015 г.” [Statistical Trends 30 September 2015], 15 October 2015, http://www.aref.government.bg/?cat=8
[5] Polina Todorova, “Interview with Nikola Kazakov, Chairman of DAB”, Telegraf, 26 October 2015, http://www.aref.government.bg/?cat=13&newsid=942
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[7] Belgrade Centre for Human Rights, “Safe Passage,” 13 November 2015, http://www.bgcentar.org.rs/bgcentar/eng-lat/safe-passage/; Human Rights Watch, “Bulgaria: Pushbacks, Abuse at Borders,” 20 January 2016, https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/01/20/bulgaria-pushbacks-abuse-borders
[8] Ministry of Economy, Macrobulletin, August 2015, http://www.mi.government.bg/files/useruploads/files/macrobuletin/bg_macro_bulletin_08-2015.pdf
[9] EUROSTAT, “People at risk of poverty or social exclusion,” 15 October 2015, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/People_at_risk_of_poverty_or_social_exclusion
[10] Песимизъм сред българските потребители за икономиката през следващата година [Pessimism among Bulgarian consumers], Mediapool 15 October 2015, http://www.mediapool.bg/pesimizam-sred-balgarskite-potrebiteli-za-ikonomikata-prez-sledvashtata-godina-news237682.html
[11] President of the Republic of Bulgaria, “Държавният глава Росен Плевнелиев предлага на Народното събрание да се проведе национален референдум по изборните права на българските граждани” [The President motions the national assembly to call a national referendum”, 3 June 2015, https://www.president.bg/news2636/darzhavniyat-glava-rosen-plevneliev-predlaga-na-narodnoto-sabranie-da-se-provede-natsionalen-referendum-po-izbornite-prava-na-balgarskite-grazhdani.html
[12] “Плевнелиев: Решението на парламента за референдума не отчита волята на българския народ” [Plevneliev: the Decision of the Parliament ignores the will of the Bulgarian people], 24 Chassa, 28 July 2015, http://www.24chasa.bg/Article.asp?ArticleId=4895381
[13] Central Electoral Commission, Election results. http://results.cik.bg/
[14] “Наблюдение на проведените местни избори и референдум“ [Monitoring of the local elections and referendum], Transparency International Bulgaria http://www.dnevnik.bg/bulgaria/2015/07/31/2583532_iniciativa_pravosudie_za_vseki_organizira_podpiska_za/
[15] “Инициатива "Правосъдие за всеки" организира подписка за явното гласуване”[ Initiative Justice for all is organizing a petition for open voting”], Dnevnik, 31 July 2015, http://www.dnevnik.bg/bulgaria/2015/07/31/2583532_iniciativa_pravosudie_za_vseki_organizira_podpiska_za/
[16]”Реформи в парламента: По-високи пенсии и повече работа[Reforms in Parliament: Higher pensions and more Jobs]” Vesti, 2 July 2015, http://www.vesti.bg/bulgaria/politika/parlamentyt-prie-po-princip-pensionnata-reforma-6038792
[17] For details on the KTB scandal, see Nations in Transit 2015, https://freedomhouse.org/report/nations-transit/2015/bulgaria; "Протестна мрежа" сезира прокуратурата за отговорността на Искров за КТБ”[Protest Network Asked the Attorney General to investigate Iskrov for KTB] http://www.dnevnik.bg/bulgaria/2014/11/25/2426379_protestna_mreja_sezira_prokuraturata_za_otgovornostta/
[18] “Bulgarian tax authorities probe four ‘Protest Network’ activists,” Sofia Globe, 25 February 2015, http://sofiaglobe.com/2015/02/25/bulgarian-tax-authorities-probe-four-protest-network-activists/
[19] “Прокуратурата отказа да разследва "Протестна мрежа" [The Office of the Attorney General refused to investigate Protest Netweork] Capital 27 May 2015. http://www.capital.bg/blogove/pravo/2015/05/27/2541810_prokuraturata_otkaza_da_razsledva_protestna_mreja/
[20] Bulgarian Center for non-Profit Law, “Законопроектът за изменение на Закона за юридическите лица с нестопанска цел, приет на първо четене от парламентарните комисии” [The Law on non-profits passed at first reading in Parliament] http://www.bcnl.org/bg/index.html
[21] Bulgarian Center for non-Profit Law , Opinion on the State Budget 2016, http://www.bcnl.org/uploadfiles/documents/stanovishta/lettercomissionbudget2016.pdf
[22] “Три бързи шамара от политиците”[Three quick slaps from the politicians], Capital, 31 July 2015, http://www.capital.bg/kreader/?i=capital&issueid=4477#post2583316
[23] Zornica Stoilova, „Не можем без ромите“ [We can´t without the Roma] Capital 26 June 2015. http://www.capital.bg/kreader/?i=capital&issueid=4438#post2560928
[24] “Напрежението в Гърмен” [The Tensions in Gurmen], Dnevnik,7 September 2015, http://www.dnevnik.bg/temi/naprejenieto_v_gurmen/
[25] Кризата на доверие в медиите се задълбочава [The Crisis of Trust in the Media], 3 February 2015, http://prnew.info/tag/fondaciq-mediina-demokraciq/
[26] Council of Europe Report, Report by Nils Muižnieks, Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights, following his visit to Bulgaria, https://wcd.coe.int/com.instranet.InstraServlet?command=com.instranet.CmdBlobGet&InstranetImage=2801758&SecMode=1&DocId=2284888&Usage=2
[27] Delyana Petkova, “Без анализ КЗК разреши на Ирена Кръстева да купи Канал 3 [Withoout analysis, thKZK allowed Krasteva to buy Kanal 3]” Investor http://www.investor.bg/medii/455/a/bez-analiz-kzk-razreshi-na-irena-krysteva-da-kupi-kanal-3-201773/
[28] “СБЖ иска законова защита на журналистите от произвола на задкулисни издатели” [The Journalists Union demands protection by law for journalists], Mediapool, 31 July 2015, http://www.mediapool.bg/sbzh-iska-zakonova-zashtita-na-zhurnalistite-ot-proizvola-na-zadkulisni-izdateli-news237380.html
[29] Foundation Media Democracy, Кризата на доверие в медиите се задълбочава [Trust in media sinks even deeper] http://prnew.info/tag/fondaciq-mediina-demokraciq/; MediaPool, 5 November 2014, Институции и партии легититимират псевдожурналистиката [Institutions and Parties legitimize pseudojouranlism]
http://www.mediapool.bg/institutsii-i-partii-legititimirat-psevdozhurnalistikata-news226826
[30] “Партиите подписаха декларация срещу интернет троловете”, Capital,22 May 2015, http://www.capital.bg/kreader/?i=capital&issueid=4396#post2538789
[31] Georgi Lozanov, “ CEM does not control the meida”, 2 November 2015, http://www.mediapool.bg/georgi-lozanov-sem-ne-e-nachalnik-na-mediite-news241293.html
[32] Central Electoral Commission, Резултати от Местни Избори 2015 [Local Elections Results 2015], http://results.cik.bg/minr2015/tur1/mestni/0101.html
[33] Georgi Marchev, “Фандъкова поиска още един мандат с пълна власт на ГЕРБ, за да не се върне стар модел в София” [fandukova asked for one more GERB mandate] Dnevnik, 25 September 2015, http://www.dnevnik.bg/bulgaria/2015/09/25/2616040_fandukova_poiska_oshte_edin_mandat_s_pulna_vlast_na/
[34] Местни избори 2015[Local Elections 2015], 30 August 2015, Capital Daily, http://www.capital.bg/politika_i_ikonomika/bulgaria/2015/08/30/2600386_mestni_izbori_2015_bsp_izdigna_georgi_gergov_za_kmet/
[35] Central Electoral Commission, Резултати от Местни Избори 2015 [Local Elections Results 2015], http://results.cik.bg/minr2015/tur1/mestni/0101.html
[36] European Commission, “On Progress in Bulgaria under the Co-operation and Verification Mechanism,” 28 January 2015, http://ec.europa.eu/cvm/docs/com_2015_36_en.pdf
[37] “Христо Иванов: Предлагаме най-амбициозната съдебна реформа” [Ivanov: we are proposing the most ambitious reform of the judiciary] 29 May 2015, Dnevnik, http://www.dnevnik.bg/bulgaria/2015/05/29/2543279_hristo_ivanov_predlagame_nai-ambicioznata_sudebna/
[38] “Реформа три от седем” [Reform: 3 out of 7] Capital, 24.07.2015, http://www.capital.bg/kreader/?i=capital&issueid=4471#post2579185
[39] Petia Vladimirova, “Съдебната реформа: историческият компромис и историческият малшанс” [Reform of the Judiciary: Historical compromise and historical missed chance, Dnevnik, 27 July 2015 http://www.dnevnik.bg/analizi/2015/07/27/2579886_sudebnata_reforma_istoricheskiiat_kompromis_i/
[40] Venice Comission, “Opinion on the draft Act to amend and supplement the Constitution (in the field of the Judiciary) of the Republic of Bulgaria,” adopted by the Venice Commission at its 104th Plenary Session (Venice, 23-24 October 2015) http://www.venice.coe.int/webforms/documents/?pdf=CDL-AD(2015)022-e
[41] ГЕРБ бламира съдебната реформа, Христо Иванов подаде оставка”[GERB stopped the reform of the judiciary, Ivanov resigned] Medialpool 9 December 2015 http://www.mediapool.bg/gerb-blamira-sadebnata-reforma-hristo-ivanov-podade-ostavka-news242864.html
[42] VESELIN ZHELEV, Bulgaria fails to adopt key anti-corruption law, EUObserver, 8 September 2015, https://euobserver.com/beyond-brussels/130158
[43] Лицемерната коалиция за корупцията [The duplicitous coalition for corruption], Capital 4 Spetmber 2015. http://www.capital.bg/kreader/?i=capital&issueid=4511#post2603998; British Embassy Sofia., “Bulgarian anti-corruption law: joint statement from Ambassadors” 7 September 2015, https://www.gov.uk/government/world-location-news/bulgarian-anti-corruption-law-joint-statement-from-ambassadors
[44] Dimiter Peev, “Голямото изпиране: Делян Пеевски ще направи опит да си тръгне от политиката с част от усвоените ресурси”[The big laundering: Delyan Peevski will try to leave politics] Capital 28 August 2015. http://www.capital.bg/kreader/?i=capital&issueid=4505#post2599488
[45] НАП проверява сделката на сина на Георги Първанов за хотел "Стримон"[NAP investigates the deal of Parvanov’s son for hotel “Strimon”] Dnevnik, 13 August 2015, http://www.dnevnik.bg/biznes/2015/08/13/2589891_nap_proveriava_sdelkata_na_sina_na_georgi_purvanov_za/
[46] “Бившият депутат от ГЕРБ Емил Димитров окончателно осъден за конфликт на интереси”[Ex GERB deputy sentenced for conflict of interests] Dnevnik, 2 July 2015, http://www.dnevnik.bg/bulgaria/2015/07/02/2565020_bivshiiat_deputat_ot_gerb_emil_dimitrov_okonchatelno/ POST2566233
[47] “Обществено-политечески нагласи преди местниа вот и нациоаналния референдум,” [Socia-political attitutdes before the local elections and the referendum] Alpha Research, 13 October 2015 http://alpharesearch.bg/userfiles/file/1015_Mestniizbori&Referendum.pdf
[48] “Наблюдение на проведените местни избори и референдум“ [Monitoring of the local elections and referendum], Transparency International Bulgaria, http://www.transparency.bg/media/cms_page_media/141/Press-release_Monitoring_Mestni_Izbori.pdf
[49] Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 2015, https://www.transparency.org/cpi2015#results-table
Nations in Transit 2016 - Bulgaria (Periodischer Bericht, Englisch)