Executive Summary:
- Colonel General Alexander Chaiko has been appointed the new commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces, replacing Viktor Afzalov. Chaiko is a ground forces commander with no experience in aviation or air defense, pointing to the decision’s political nature.
- Clan interests and personal loyalty, rather than considerations of competency, explain this appointment. Chaiko is a protégé of Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, and Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu reportedly lobbied his candidacy to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
- The appointment of a “ground forces” general amid a crisis in air defense due to massive Ukrainian drone attacks demonstrates how the Kremlin continues to solve problems by reshuffling loyal personnel rather than changing approaches.
On May 4, the Russian military leadership carried out another significant reshuffle at the top of its command structure. Russian media, citing sources close to the Ministry of Defense, reported the appointment of Colonel General Alexander Chaiko as the new commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) (RBC; Meduza, May 4). He replaced General Viktor Afzalov, who had led the VKS since 2023, following Sergey Surovikin’s departure (Novaya Gazeta, October 20, 2023). The Ministry of Defense still has not officially confirmed the appointment. This lack of transparency is symptomatic of the current state of the Russian command system. It also indicates the decision is not purely technical, but deeply political.
Chaiko has strong ties to Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov, who maintains the loyalty of the “Gerasimov faction” inside the Kremlin. The 54-year-old general graduated from the Moscow Higher Combined Arms Command School and rose rapidly through the ranks before being appointed commander of the Aerospace Forces, despite not being a pilot or an air defense specialist. His career followed a classic General Staff trajectory—from platoon commander to commander of the 20th Combined Arms Army. His service record also includes repeated command of Russian forces in Syria, where Chaiko participated in negotiations between then Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and then Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. In 2019, Chaiko became deputy chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces under Gerasimov. Shortly before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed him commander of the Eastern Military District. He awarded him the rank of Colonel General in November 2021 (Current Time, May 8).
Chaiko commanded Russia’s “Vostok” grouping on the key Kyiv axis in the first months of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. His participation in the war against Ukraine makes the general’s appointment especially notable. According to the Security Service of Ukraine, Chaiko established his headquarters in a seized kindergarten in the village of Zdvyzhivka, Bucha district, Kyiv oblast, to avoid strikes during the Ukrainian counteroffensive (see EDM, April 13, 2022; Security Service of Ukraine, September 5, 2022). Ukrainian investigators also accuse Chaiko of ordering the use of combat aviation and artillery against residential areas in early March 2022, resulting in civilian casualties (24tv.ua, July 19, 2025). Meanwhile, the attempted capture of Kyiv became one of the most catastrophic episodes for the Russian Armed Forces, in which troops failed to achieve any of their objectives and were forced to retreat.
The current appointment of Chaiko as commander of the Aerospace Forces comes amid an evident crisis in the Russian air defense system. Under Afzalov’s leadership, Russia faced unprecedented pressure from Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) strikes on critical, logistical, and military infrastructure (see EDM, March 30, April 13, May 6). In March, Ukrainian UAVs struck the largest Russian oil terminals in the Baltic Sea, significantly affecting oil export capacity (see EDM, March 30). In April alone, Ukraine attacked Russian oil facilities more than 20 times. The “red line” for Afzalov’s dismissal, according to Russian Telegram channels, however, may have been a Ukrainian UAV reaching Moscow directly ahead of the May holidays (Telegram/@vizioner_rf; Meduza, May 4). Amid preparations for the May 9 parade and unprecedented security measures in the capital, such an event was perceived as a personal humiliation for the security services (see EDM, May 11). Dissatisfaction within the Kremlin over air defense performance is understandable, reflecting a chronic inability to counter inexpensive Ukrainian UAVs. Air defense and missile defense troops are organizationally part of the Aerospace Forces, and responsibility for systemic inefficiency was placed on Afzalov.
Chaiko has no experience in air defense or aviation—he is a combined-arms commander. The Kremlin is either not looking for a genuine technical solution to the problem, or another logic dictates the appointment. In military-political circles, Chaiko is consistently characterized as a protégé of Gerasimov. The connection likely originated when Gerasimov served as a subordinate to Chaiko’s father in East Germany during the Cold War (Zerkalo, May 8). The trajectory of Chaiko’s career—repeated appointments to the same positions, rotations with other generals from the same circle, and rapid returns to service after failures—indicates a stable patron at the top of the military hierarchy. The general is known as a “desk fox,” meaning a master of bureaucratic survival who can maintain his position despite military failures (Telegram/@arbat, June 27, 2023).
The picture becomes more complex, as Shoigu—who is currently the secretary of the Russian Security Council— allegedly proposed Chaiko’s candidacy to Russian President Vladimir Putin (Telegram/@russicaru, May 5). According to an independent Russian news outlet Important Stories, Western intelligence has detected signs of pressure on Shoigu, including possible criminal prosecution (Important Stories, May 4). Promoting his own candidate to a key military post may be part of a protective strategy (see EDM, March 31).
Appointing a ground forces general to oversee aviation and strategic air defense clearly indicates bureaucratic logic and internal political calculation. Whoever controls the Aerospace Forces controls resources, budgets, and, under wartime conditions, a significant part of the daily operational picture. The appointment broadly reflects a continuing crisis in the command structure of the Russian Armed Forces. The Kremlin continues to rely on trusted insiders from the Gerasimov–Shoigu circle, even when it comes to critical high-tech branches of the military. This creates additional risks for Russia’s defense capability and opens a window of opportunity for Ukraine to continue its offensive drone campaign. As the Russian economy becomes increasingly dependent on oil and petroleum exports, the inability of the Aerospace Forces to ensure reliable protection of energy infrastructure may become an important factor in determining the future course of the war.
Chaiko’s appointment fits into a stable Russian tradition—responding to systemic failures with personnel reshuffles rather than reforming the system. This is not an attempt to solve a problem, but an attempt by the traditional elites of the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense to maintain control over it. A commander compromised by war crime allegations and known for bureaucratic flexibility, but not aviation experience, is now leading forces facing a crisis of effectiveness. If such “bureaucratic foxes” occupy key command positions, the Russian military will continue to demonstrate a gap between its propagandistic claims of “unmatched capabilities” and its actual effectiveness on the battlefield and in the air. For Ukraine and its allies, this personnel reshuffle is not grounds for expecting an immediate increase in Russian air defense capabilities. It clearly demonstrates, however, that the internal dysfunction of the Russian military command has not disappeared.
