Research Directorate, Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada, Ottawa

1. Overview

According to sources, the Republican Alternative (REAL) Movement was founded in 2009 (REAL n.d.a; Researcher 22 Nov. 2018; Meydan TV 8 May 2017). Sources indicate that the movement was created to contest proposed constitutional amendments allowing for unlimited presidential terms (REAL n.d.a; Researcher 22 Nov. 2018; RFE/RL 31 Jan. 2017). On its website, REAL states that, in January 2014, it decided to transition from a movement to a political party (REAL n.d.a). Sources report that REAL declared itself a political party in April 2018 (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018; RFE/RL 9 Apr. 2018).

REAL's website states that the group's main aim is the "[r]estoration of the Republic" in Azerbaijan, and indicates the following regarding the group's goals:

[REAL] aims at building a republic with a government of, by and for the people. Our goal is to introduce constitutional reforms with a view to bringing about serious democratic changes, so that our country be governed by rule of law.

[REAL] strives to get domestic laws [to] be just and be fairly applied. To achieve that, we will reform the law-enforcement bodies, so that every citizen becomes effectively equal before the law and the court, and administration of justice becomes fair. (REAL n.d.a)

In correspondence with the Research Directorate, an Azerbaijani freelance journalist who has interviewed some of REAL's leadership similarly stated that REAL advocates "for a parliamentary republic," for a "free and fair Azerbaijan" and for a "free and transparent economy" (Journalist 26 Nov. 2018). According to the same source, REAL is politically "centre right" (Journalist 26 Nov. 2018). Corroborating information could not be found among the sources consulted by the Research Directorate within the time constraints of this Response.

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) states that REAL is "unequivocally pro-Western" and wishes to integrate Azerbaijan "into NATO and the European Union" (RFE/RL 31 Jan. 2017). Corroborating information could not be found among the sources consulted by the Research Directorate within the time constraints of this Response.

In correspondence with the Research Directorate, a researcher at the Institute for Russian and Eurasian Studies (IRES) at Uppsala University in Sweden who studies political mobilization in Azerbaijan stated that "REAL is the one [opposition] group that has always maintained they have a serious political program and, thus, it should be seen as a serious alternative to the current political leadership, emphasizing the need for a parliamentary democracy" (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018).

According to the researcher, REAL was seen as "a hope for change" when first founded, especially among young people (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018). Other sources state that REAL is popular among the youth (Caucasian Knot 31 May 2018) or among the "dissident youth" (Meydan TV 8 May 2017). Meydan TV, an independent online multimedia platform focused on Azerbaijan (Meydan TV n.d.), adds that the movement was also popular among the "intellectual elite" at its inception (Meydan TV 8 May 2017).

The journalist stated that REAL was founded "by a group of likeminded individuals from various backgrounds. Some were academics, some economists and some businessmen" (Journalist 26 Nov. 2018). The researcher stated that the founders of REAL are "well educated" and have "had successful careers in their respective professions (such as professors, lawyers, economists)," with "no formal links to the ill-reputed 'traditional opposition'" (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018). According to the same source, it was therefore "possible for them at least initially to succeed in positioning themselves as a 'new force'" (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018). Similarly, Meydan TV states that

[t]he movement was created by … politicians of the new generation. Set against the backdrop of the traditional opposition, which represented socially underprivileged layers of society, the movement was set apart by the fact that its functionaries were successful politicians, economists, historians, and lawyers; they had experienced career growth and represented the interests of the country's middle class. They could be called the face of the new opposition in Azerbaijan. (Meydan TV 8 May 2017)

2. Leadership and Structure

Sources identify Ilgar Mammadov as REAL's leader (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018; REAL n.d.b) or as a co-chair (Political Handbook of the World 2017, 106). Sources state that Ilgar Mammadov was elected as the chairman of the party in April 2018, despite being in prison (Caucasian Knot 9 Apr. 2018; RFE/RL 9 Apr. 2018). According to the Researcher, "a council leads the organization (not an individual) and … this leadership group makes decisions collectively" (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018). The journalist stated, without providing further details, that REAL's structure is comprised of several committees in addition to the party leader (Journalist 26 Nov. 2018).

According to REAL's website, the following individuals constitute its leadership, in addition to Ilgar Mammadov:

• Azer Gasimli [Gasymly], President of the Assembly;
• Natig Jafarli [Cafarli], Executive Secretary;
• Erkin Gadirli, Secretary of Foreign Relations;
• Khalid Baghirov, Secretary of Law and Elections;
• Rasul Jafarov, Secretary of Human Rights;
• Toghrul Ismayilov, Secretary of Human Resources;
• Zohrab Ismayil, Chairman of the Economic Policy Committee;
• Vafa Rustam, Chairwoman of the Legal Policy Committee;
• Mubariz Rahimli, Chairman of the Foreign Policy Committee;
• Jasur Mammadov, Chairman of the Security Policy Committee;
• Toghrul Valiev, Chairman of the Social Policy Committee;
• Inara Manafova, Secretary of the Assembly (REAL n.d.b).

Some sources state that REAL has "thousands" of members (Eurasianet 28 Sept. 2018; Caucasian Knot 9 Apr. 2018). In contrast, the journalist stated that REAL has "around 500 members" (Journalist 26 Nov. 2018). Eurasianet, a US-based news organization that covers the South Caucasus and Central Asia (Eurasianet n.d.), states that, according to Mammadov, the party "has opened 20 offices across Azerbaijan" (Eurasianet 28 Sept. 2018).

According to the journalist, REAL has "a decision-making body that decides on new membership applications" and the party itself "sometimes" offers membership (Journalist 26 Nov. 2018). The journalist added that REAL's "support base is diverse - youth, mid-career professionals, and its membership is evenly distributed across the rural/urban divide," as they have regional representations and work effectively there" (Journalist 26 Nov. 2018). The journalist further stated that a "few of the founding members are former academics and, so, many of their former students either are members, or follow the party [but] refrain from joining because of their jobs and positions within the government" (Journalist 26 Nov. 2018). Corroborating information could not be found among the sources consulted by the Research Directorate within the time constraints of this Response.

Further information on the leadership and structure of REAL, including its membership, could not be found among the sources consulted by the Research Directorate within the time constraints of this Response.

3. Activities

According to the researcher, "[s]ince the beginning, REAL has had a strong online presence" and part of REAL's activities

has been related to raising [on social media] various local issues in Baku, for example related to infrastructure, public transportation, [and] road safety …, forcing the government to stop ignoring the calls of the residents. At least according to their own leadership, such campaigns [have] often [been] quite successful. (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018)

Meydan TV states that Mammadov "and members of the movement [have] always [been] active in social networks, holding lectures on topics like freedom of speech, democracy, European integration and universal values" (Meydan TV 8 May 2017).

Sources report that, in 2013, Mammadov unsuccessfully attempted to run for president (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018; Political Handbook of the World 2017, 106). According to the Political Handbook of the World, "[h]is candidacy was rejected after a number of his support signatures were ruled invalid" (Political Handbook of the World 2017, 106).

Political Handbook of the World states that REAL participated in the parliamentary elections held in November 2015, "but refused to recognize the electoral results" (Political Handbook of the World 2017, 101). RFE/RL explains that REAL demanded "the annulment of the official returns" since, according to a REAL spokesman, these returns in the 10 electoral districts where REAL had successfully registered candidates were "falsified" to show "far lower figures" than the ones in fact obtained (RFE/RL 31 Jan. 2017).

According to the researcher,

REAL’s electoral work has previously been rather determined, and this was particularly noticeable in the 2015 parliamentary election. Fully aware of their marginalization in society, as representatives of an extremely unpopular 'opposition,' their electoral work focused on … sell[ing] themselves to the public as ‘something new,’ which was, of course, easier said than done. They were the only opposition group to see the electoral cycle through, emphasizing the importance of participation. (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018)

The researcher added that, according to one of its leaders, REAL reportedly "made an active decision [during the 2015 election campaign] to talk to 'everyone - not only those who are already convinced.' By actively visiting all parts of the country, they wanted to ensure they learned about specific regional problems and promoted their organization" (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018).

4. Treatment by Authorities

According to the journalist, REAL and its leaders "are very much seen as a threat by the authorities because they are different [from] former opposition parties. They are more active, they have a very clear agenda, they are engaged and they certainly speak up more than others" (Journalist 26 Nov. 2016). Corroborating information could not be found among the sources consulted by the Research Directorate within the time constraints of this Response.

The researcher stated that REAL had difficulties in its efforts to transition from a movement to an official party due to the State's manipulation of the process for registering political parties (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018). According to sources, both private and public companies refused to provide a location for REAL's April 2018 convention, following which it declared that it was a party, and had to hold the event online (Caucasian Knot 9 Apr. 2018; Researcher 22 Nov. 2018).

The researcher indicated that the Azerbaijan government's manipulation of the process for registering political parties "is a known way the [state] can manipulate and marginalize oppositional actors" (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018). According to RFE/RL, REAL stated that it "will not seek formal registration [as a party] by the state" as it is "clear" that the registration would be refused (RFE/RL 9 Apr. 2018). Online news service Caucasian Knot reports that another reason REAL did not intend to apply for state registration is that this would involve providing the personal data of its members to the Azerbaijani Ministry of Justice (Caucasian Knot 9 Apr. 2018).

According to sources, several leaders and members of REAL have been detained by authorities over the years (Caucasian Knot 30 May 2018; Political Handbook of the World 2017, 106; RFE/RL 11 Sept. 2016; Journalist 26 Nov. 2018). The journalist further explained that 6 out of the 8 founding members of REAL "have been detained, arrested, or questioned over the last ten years, especially over the last two [to] four years," as part of a larger "crackdown" against Azerbaijani civil society (Journalist 26 Nov. 2018).

Sources report that Mammadov was arrested in 2013 (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018; Political Handbook of the World 2017, 106), "for alleged involvement in … antigovernment disturbances" (Political Handbook of the World 2017, 106) or for "organizing riots and resisting police in connection with unrest in the city of Ismayilli" (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018). Sources indicate that Mammadov was sentenced to seven years in prison [in 2014 (RFE/RL 9 Apr. 2018; Political Handbook of the World 2017, 106)] (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018; RFE/RL 9 Apr. 2018; Political Handbook of the World 2017, 106), after being convicted of "organizing and taking part in mass protests in the northern town of Ismayilli to demand the resignation of a provincial leader" (RFE/RL 9 Apr. 2018). The researcher indicated that this was despite Mammadov "not even having been present in Ismayili until the violence was over" (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018). According to the researcher, "[t]he general understanding is [that] his arrest [was] related to his plan to run for president in the 2013 elections" (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018). Sources state that the Council of Europe launched a sanction procedure against Azerbaijan in 2017 after a 2014 European Court of Human Rights ruling that Mammadov's human rights had been violated (RFE/RL 9 Apr. 2018; Eurasianet 28 Sept. 2018).

According to the researcher, "after [Mammadov] was arrested [in 2013], REAL lost its momentum" (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018). Similarly, the journalist stated that after Mammadov was arrested,

the party stopped [all] of its political aspirations and devoted all of its time [to] the release of their leaders. The party members were concerned that any political work might be used against [Mammadov] in jail and result in some form of pressure mechanism against him. (Journalist 22 Nov. 2018)

The researcher added that, after the arrest, "the authorities gradually began to take a series of repressive and, above all, preventive measures against leaders, members and activities" of the party (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018). The journalist stated that Khalid Baghiro, a lawyer who is also a founding member of REAL, "has been disbarred from the bar association for representing high profile cases of political prisoners" (Journalist 26 Nov. 2018).

However, the researcher added that

even though the belief in REAL’s capacity faded, Mammadov’s imprisonment appears to have made his personal political position stronger. [The] Council of Europe’s persistence to get Mammadov released appeared to underline his significance and also made him an increasing annoyance for the Azerbaijani government that finally released him on parole in August 2018. (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018)

Other sources similarly state that Mammadov was conditionally released from prison in August 2018 (VOA 17 Aug. 2018; Eurasianet 28 Sept. 2018), with limitations imposed on his movements (VOA 17 Aug. 2018). US-funded international broadcaster Voice of America (VOA) reports that, according to a Human Rights Watch representative, "Mammadov was released only because of growing international pressure," particularly from the Council of Europe (VOA 17 Aug. 2018).

The journalist stated that Azer Gasimly was arrested for organizing a march on the anniversary of Azerbaijan Republic (Journalist 26 Nov. 2018), on 28 March 2018 (Caucasian Knot 30 May 2018). The Caucasian Knot indicates that he was arrested on 29 May 2018, adding that three other REAL members were also detained on charges of "disobeying policemen," a "typical" charge in Azerbaijan for the "persecution of the opposition" according to a "law expert" interviewed (Caucasian Knot 30 May 2018).

Sources report that Azerbaijan held snap presidential elections in April 2018 (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018; RFE/RL 9 Apr. 2018). According to the researcher, holding snap elections in 2018 before Mammadov's release instead of holding them in October was seemingly done to prevent his participation, adding that while it was unlikely that he would have won, he would have "plausibl[y]" been perceived as a credible candidate (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018).

According to the researcher, REAL's outreach and promotional work throughout the country "has become increasingly difficult" and she was uncertain if this work continued (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018). The researcher stated that, reportedly,

the authorities were trying to prevent any … regional meetings from happening by putting pressure on everyone, from hotel and restaurant owners to community leaders, to refuse to accommodate REAL. In addition, law enforcement agencies frequently disturbed the meetings and those locals who nonetheless dared to participate risked interrogation and intimidation. (Researcher 22 Nov. 2018)

Corroborating information could not be found among the sources consulted by the Research Directorate within the time constraints of this Response.

This Response was prepared after researching publicly accessible information currently available to the Research Directorate within time constraints. This Response is not, and does not purport to be, conclusive as to the merit of any particular claim for refugee protection. Please find below the list of sources consulted in researching this Information Request.

References

Caucasian Knot. 31 May 2018. Faik Medjid. "In Azerbaijan, 50 ReAl Activists Questioned by Police." [Accessed 23 Nov. 2018]

Caucasian Knot. 30 May 2018. Faik Medjid. "Three Oppositionists Detained in Baku." [Accessed 23 Nov. 2018]

Caucasian Knot. 9 April 2018. Faik Medzhid. "ReAl Announces Creation of Political Party in Azerbaijan." [Accessed 23 Nov. 2018]

Eurasianet. 28 September 2018. Joshua Kucera. "Released from Prison, Azerbaijani Opposition Leader Girds for Political Fight." [Accessed 23 Nov. 2018]

Eurasianet. N.d. "About." [Accessed 29 Nov. 2018]

Journalist. 26 November 2018. Correspondence with the Research Directorate.

Meydan TV. 8 May 2017. "Why Is the Aliyev Regime So Afraid of Ilgar Mammadov?" [Accessed 23 Nov. 2018]

Meydan TV. N.d. "Mission, Vision, Values." [Accessed 29 Nov. 2018]

Political Handbook of the World 2016-2017. 2017. "Azerbaijan." Edited by Thomas Lansford. Washington, DC: CQ Press. [Accessed 21 Nov. 2018]

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). 9 April 2018. "Jailed Azerbaijani Opposition Leader's Movement Declares Itself a Party." [Accessed 21 Nov. 2018]

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). 31 January 2017. Liz Fuller. "Azerbaijani Political Movement Said to Have Been Suborned by Iran." [Accessed 21 Nov. 2018]

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). 11 September 2016. "Azerbaijan Releases Opposition Activist Ahead of Key Referendum." [Accessed 23 Nov. 2018]

Republican Alternative (REAL). N.d.a. "Who We Are." [Accessed 21 Nov. 2018]

Republican Alternative (REAL). N.d.b. "Leadership." [Accessed 21 Nov. 2018]

Researcher, Institute for Russian and Eurasian Studies (IRES), Uppsala University. 22 November 2018. Correspondence with the Research Directorate.

Voice of America (VOA). 17 August 2018. Dilshad Aliyarli and Asgar Asgarov. "Azerbaijani Politician's Release Earns Partial Western Approval." [Accessed 23 Nov. 2018]

Additional Sources Consulted

Oral sources: Academic specializing in international politics; Instructor in political science who has studied politics in Azerbaijan; REAL party; Transparency Azerbaijan.

Internet sites, including: Amnesty International; Article 19; Azerbaijan – Official Website of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan; Azerbaijan.az; Bertelsmann Stiftung; ecoi.net; Freedom House; Haqqin.az; Human Rights Watch; Institute for Reporters' Freedom and Safety; Turan News Agency; UN – Human Rights Council, Refworld; US – CIA, Department of State; World Organization Against Torture.