Document #1334488
Freedom House (Author)
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
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National Democratic Governance | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 |
Electoral Process | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 |
Civil Society | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 |
Independent Media | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 |
Local Democratic Governance | 7.00 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 |
Judicial Framework and Independence | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 |
Corruption | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 |
Democracy Score | 6.96 | 6.93 | 6.93 | 6.93 | 6.93 | 6.93 | 6.93 | 6.93 | 6.93 | 6.93 |
NOTE: The ratings reflect the consensus of Freedom House, its academic advisers, and the author(s) of this report. If consensus cannot be reached, Freedom House is responsible for the final ratings. The ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The Democracy Score is an average of ratings for the categories tracked in a given year. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the author(s).
Turkmenistan is an authoritarian regime with a neopatrimonial governing system under which little has changed in terms of governance and administration since the death of President Saparmurat Niyazov in 2006.[1] Under Niyazov’s successor, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, the judiciary and legislative branches continue to act as extensions of the executive, whose decrees function as both law and justice. Until very recently, the totalitarian regime’s stability rested on high prices for its ample natural gas that enabled the state to provide free or heavily subsidized gas, water, flour, salt, electricity, and gasoline.[2]
This model is now facing unprecedented challenges due to the collapse of oil and natural gas prices, security threats along the country’s border with Afghanistan, and the radicalization of Central Asian youth. Cutbacks to the state subsidy system beginning in January 2014 and a currency devaluation of 19 percent in January 2015 produced some harmless, yet significant for Turkmenistan, signs of social unrest, with people holding demonstrations against the destruction of satellite dishes and unpaid workers demanding their salaries. Even the traditionally optimistic official GDP statistics, which experts have treated with skepticism for years, showed a sharp reduction in the annual growth rate, from 10.3 percent in 2014 to 6.5 percent in 2015.[3] At the same time, the military has engaged in periodic clashes with the Taliban along the border with Afghanistan, contributing to worries about security and challenging the state’s official status of neutrality. Additionally, Central Asian youth, including Turkmen, have shown increasing interest in the war in Syria and the Islamic State which also led to further restrictions on travel of Turkmen residents abroad.[4]
In this way, Turkmenistan’s foreign policy of “neutrality” and self-imposed isolation have not produced the protection from conflicts that the government promised. Economic pressures, coupled with growing security concerns, are slowly but surely changing the government’s general attitude toward its foreign partners. In terms of internal politics, the government has responded to these pressures by seeking to further restrict the influence of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), limit access to information, and reveal even less to the outside world. There remains no true opposition or media outlet that could challenge the state in Turkmenistan.
No score changes.
Outlook for 2016: The deepening crises spurred by falling oil and gas prices and the growing security threat from the Taliban and Islamic State will force Turkmenistan to continue rethinking its model for both internal and external relations. Reforms are necessary to address the country’s economic stagnation and collapsing infrastructure. The reduction in GDP growth and currency devaluation in 2015 highlighted the critical economic issues within the country. The government will also be under pressure to rethink its energy policies and position within the global security system in order to gain more military support for defending its borders with Afghanistan. The decision to have Turkmengaz head the construction of the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) gas pipeline after no major energy companies came forward to lead its construction is another sign the government is feeling pressure to act and is seeking new partners in Southeast Asia in its power bargain.
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
7.00 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
7.00 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
[1] Nicholas Kunyasz, “From sultanism to neopatrimonialism? Regionalism within Turkmenistan,” Central Asian Survey 31(11):9 (2011). In addition to the citations given, this report draws on interviews and informal communication with residents of Turkmenistan as well as Turkmenistanis who temporarily or permanently reside outside of the country.
[2] Murat Sadykov, “Turkmenistan to Make Residents Pay for Gas,” Eurasianet, 20 January 2014, , http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67955
[3] “Turkmenistan: Economy,” Asian Development Bank, 2016, http://www.adb.org/countries/turkmenistan/economy
[4] Yaroslav Trofimov, “Syrian War Draws Central Asians,” The Wall Street Journal, 29 October 2015,
http://www.wsj.com/articles/syrian-war-draws-central-asians-1446122699; Cholpon Orozobekova, “Central Asia and the ISIS Phantom,” The Diplomat, 2 October 2015, http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/central-asia-and-the-isis-phantom/
[5] David Holley, “Death of Turkmenistan leader creates a vacuum,” The Los Angeles Times, 22 December 2006, http://articles.latimes.com/2006/dec/22/world/fg-turkmen22
[6] Shaun Walker, “A horse, a horse … Turkmenistan president honours himself with a statue,” The Guardian, 25 May 2015, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/25/horse-turkmenistan-president-statute-berdymukhamedov
[7] “Turkmenistan's parliament to approve changes that would allow president for life,”Asia News, 6 February 2015, http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Turkmenistan%27s-parliament-to-approve-changes-that-would-allow-president-for-life-34401.html
[8] Chris Rickleton, “Turkmenistan: What’s behind sudden manat devaluation?” Eurasianet, 2 January 2015, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/71506
[9] Fuad Alizade, “Туркменистан под прессингом глобальных политических и экономических вызовов” [Turkmenistan under pressure from political and economic challenges], Polit-Asia, 11 February 2015, http://www.polit-asia.kz/index.php/latest-news/509-туркменистан-под-прессингом-глобальных-политических-и-экономических-вызовов
[10] IWPR Central Asia, “Taleban Threat May Tempt Turkmenistan Out of Isolation,” Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR), 19 February 2016, https://iwpr.net/global-voices/taleban-threat-may-tempt-turkmenistan-out; Amangeldy Nurmuradov, “ Глава Туркмении сменил министров национальной безопасности и обороны” [The head Turkmenistan replaced the Minister of National Security and Defense], RIA Novosti, 5 October 2015, http://ria.ru/world/20151005/1297298743.html
[11] Bruce Pannier, “Turkmenistan’s Afghan Policy Revealed,” RFE/RL, 27 October 2015, http://www.rferl.org/content/qishloq-ovozi-turkmenistan-afghanistan-taliban-border/27330020.html
[12] “Turkmenistan builds railway line to Afghan border,” bne Intellinews, 17 November 2015, http://www.intellinews.com/turkmenistan-builds-railway-line-to-afghan-border-84029/
[13] “Telephone conversation between the leaders of Turkmenistan and Afghanistan,” Government of Turkmenistan, 9 November 2015, http://www.turkmenistan.gov.tm/_eng/?id=5284
[14] Rohullah Osmani, “TAPI pipeline – is the Iran nuclear deal a threat or an opportunity?” Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 18 September 2015, http://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13278-tapi-pipeline-%E2%80%93-is-the-iran-nuclear-deal-a-threat-or-an-opportunity?.html
[15] “’Turkmengaz’ Selected TAPI Consortium Leader: At the Start of the Gas Pipeline Project,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan, accessed 23 May 2016, http://www.mfa.gov.tm/en/news-en/3393-turkmengaz-selected-tapi-consortium-leader-at-the-start-of-the-gas-pipeline-project
[16] “Turkmenistan to Work With Japan to Further Develop Galkynysh,” Natural Gas Asia, 18 October 2015, http://www.naturalgasasia.com/turkmenistan-to-work-with-japan-to-further-develop-galkynysh-16787
[17] “В Туркменистане проходят выборы членов Генгешей” [In Turkmenistan elections are held for the members of Gengesh], Parahat.info, 16 August 2015, http://www.parahat.info/news/2015-08-16-v-turkmenistane-prohodyat-vybory-chlenov-gengeshey
[18] “Turkmenistan creates agrarian party,” Trend News Agency, 29 September 2014, http://en.trend.az/casia/turkmenistan/2316791.html
[19] “Turkmenistan Parliamentary Elections, 15 December 2013, OSCE/ODIHR Needs Assessment Mission Report,” Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), 12 September 2013, http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/turkmenistan/104831?download=true
[20] Personal communication with people from Dashgovuz velayat and Turkmenbashi.
[21] “The 2014 CSO Sustainability Index for Central and Eastern Europe and Eurasia,” United State Agency for International Development (USAID), 2014, https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/1863/EuropeEurasia_FY2014_CSOSI_Report.pdf
[22] “Turkmenistan: NGOs to combat illegal information on the Internet,” Chronicles of Turkmenistan, 20 January 2015, http://www.chrono-tm.org/en/2015/01/turkmenistan-ngos-to-combat-illegal-information-on-the-internet/
[23] Mikhail Sheinkman, “Демократия на любителя. В Туркмении разрешили митинги и собрания” [Democracy for the amateur. Turkmenistan allows rallies and demonstrations], RIA Novosti, 12 March 2015, http://ria.ru/radio_brief/20150312/1052282701.html and http://iphronline.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Spotlight-Fundamental-rights-in-Central-Asia-report-Sept-2015.pdf and http://turkmenistan.gov.tm/?id=8344
[24] “Закон Туркменистана о государственных гарантиях обеспечения равных прав и равных возможностей женщин и мужчин” [Law of Turkmenistan on state guarantees for the equal rights and opportunities of men and women], Government of Turkmenistan, 18 August 2015, http://turkmenistan.gov.tm/?id=9491
[25] “Состоялась конференция, посвященная вопросам гендерного равенства” [A conference was held on issues of gender equality], Gundogar, 16 October 2015, http://gundogar-news.com/index.php?category_id=5&news_id=6722
[26] “International Religious Freedom Report : Turkmenistan,” US Commission on International Religious Freedom, 2014, http://turkmenistan.usembassy.gov/rfr.html; “Turkmenistan,” US Commission on International Religious Freedom, 2015, http://www.uscirf.gov/sites/default/files/Turkmenistan%202015.pdf
[27] Felix Corley, “TURKMENISTAN: ‘Who can forbid us from praying?’ Yet raids, fines continue,” Forum 18, 12 March 2015, http://www.forum18.org/archive.php?article_id=2047.
[28] Felix Corley, “TURKMENISTAN: Two amnestied prisoners, conscientious objector in hospital, beaten “Wahhabis,”” Forum 18, 18 February 2015, http://forum18.org/archive.php?article_id=2039
[29] “Jehovah’s Witnesses in Turkmenistan: Religious Freedom Concerns,” The European Association of Jehovah’s Christian Witnesses, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, 30 September 2015, http://www.osce.org/odihr/187461?download=true
[30] Author interviews and field research.
[31] Interviews with residents of three regions of Turkmenistan.
[32] “Curtailing Rights in the Name of Stability: Current Trends in Turkmenistan,” International Partnership for Human Rights, May 2015, http://iphronline.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/turkmenistan_central_asia_briefing_paper_may_2015.pdf
[33] “Turkmenistan: War on Satellite Dishes,” Human Rights Watch, 24 April 2015, https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/04/24/turkmenistan-war-satellite-dishes
[34] Alex Knapp, “SpaceX Launched Turkmenistan's First Satellite,” Forbes, 28 April 2015, http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2015/04/28/spacex-launched-turkmenistans-first-satellite/; Mike Wall, “SpaceX Falcon 9 Rocket Launches Turkmenistan’s First-Ever Satellite,” Space.com, 27 April 2015, http://www.space.com/29229-spacex-launches-turkmenistan-satellite.html
[35] “New books by President of Turkmenistan to be published,” Government of Turkmenistan, 17 June 2015, http://turkmenistan.gov.tm/_eng/?id=4896
[36] Inna Burova, “Third volume of Medicinal Plants of Turkmenistan published in Korean,” Government of Turkmenistan, 22 September 2015, http://www.turkmenistan.gov.tm/_eng/?id=5166
[37] State News Agency of Turkmenistan, “Число пользователей интернета выросло в Туркменистане в четыре раза“ [The number of internet users in Turkmenistan has quadrupled], Infoabad.com, 13 August 2015 , http://infoabad.com/obschestvo-i-yekonomika/chislo-polzovatelei-interneta-vyroslo-v-turkmenistane-v-chetyre-raza.html
[38] “Internet World Stats: Asia,” Internet World Stats, accessed 25 May 2016, http://www.internetworldstats.com/asia.htm; Annette Bohr, “Turkmenistan: Power, Politics and Petro-Authoritarianism,” Chatham House, March 2016 https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/publications/research/2016-03-08-turkmenistan-bohr.pdf
[39] Bruce Pannier, “Fated To Go To A Turkmen Prison,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), 10 September 2015, http://www.rferl.org/content/turkmenistan-fated-for-prison/27237643.html
[40] “Turkmenistan Streamlines Local Government,” Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR), 7 June 2010, https://iwpr.net/global-voices/turkmenistan-streamlines-local-government
[41] Suharev A.Ya. “Pravovie sistemy mira: Entsiklopedicheskiy spravochnik, 2003.Turkmenistan.” http://sci-book.com/kniga-sravnitelnoe-pravo/turkmenistan-84952.html
[42] “New Ashgabat mayor respected by residents,” Chronicles of Turkmenistan , 20 August 2015, http://www.chrono-tm.org/en/2015/08/new-ashagabat-mayor-respected-by-residents/
[43] James Kimer, “Turkmenistan aims to provide free gas for citizens,” Silk Road Reporters, 5 January 2014, http://www.silkroadreporters.com/2014/01/05/turkmenistan-aims-to-provide-free-gas-for-citizens/; “Энергетика и инфраструктура Крах туркменского рая” [Energy and infrastructure: Collapse of the Turkmen paradise], Institute for Caspian Collaboration, 13 March 2015, http://www.casfactor.com/ru/eninf/175.html; “Gas-Exporter Turkmenistan Suffering Gas Shortages—Report,” Eurasianet, 29 October 2014, www.eurasianet.org/node/70646; Bruce Pannier, “Turkmenistan: 'Gas-Rich' Residents Shiver In The Cold,” RFE/RL, 3 January 2008; http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1079313.html
[44] “Гуманизм туркменской модели развития: минуя шоковую терапию, кризисы и нестабильность” [The humanism of the Turkmen model of development: avoiding shock therapy, crises, and instability], Infoabad.com, 3 February 2015, http://infoabad.com/obschestvo-i-yekonomika/gumanizm-turkmenskoi-modeli-razvitija-minuja-shokovuyu-terapiyu-krizisy-i-nestabilnost.html
[45] “В Лебапском велаяте идет строительство заводов по производству питьевой воды” [Plant for production of drinking water under construction in Lebap welayat], Infoabad.com, 10 February 2015, http://infoabad.com/obschestvo-i-yekonomika/v-lebapskom-velajate-idet-stroitelstvo-zavodov-po-proizvodstvu-pitevoi-vody.html
[46] “Рабочая поездка Президента Гурбангулы Бердымухамедова в Лебапский велаят” (Working visit of President Gurbanguly Bermukhamedow to Lebap Velayat), Turkmen State News Agency, 25 June 2015, https://tdh.gov.tm/index.php/ru/2013-04-29-11-55-24/2013-04-13-07-33-53/13631-2015-06-25-23-57-06
[47] “В Туркменистане началось массовое привлечение людей к уборке хлопка” [Mass recruitment for cotton picking begins in Turkmenistan], Alternative News of Turkmenistan, 23 September 2015, http://habartm.org/archives/3649
[48] Osman Hallyev and Charles Recknagel, “Children Back At Work In Turkmenistan's Cotton Fields,” RFE/RL 18 October 2015 , http://www.rferl.org/content/cotton-child-labor-turkmenistan/25141281.html
[49] “Туркменские хлопкоробы выполнили государственный заказ на производство хлопка” [Turkmen cotton-pickers have met the state quota of cotton production], Turkmenistan.ru, 28 October 2015, http://www.turkmenistan.ru/ru/articles/41222.html
[50] “Независимость отметили в… «обезьяннике»” [Celebrating independence in the “monkey cage”], Alternative News of Turkmenistan, 2 November 2015, http://habartm.org/archives/3855
[51] “Deprived of homes, deprived of rights: Uncovering evidence of mass forced evictions and house demolitions in Turkmenistan,” Amnesty International, 28 October 2015, https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/eur61/2693/2015/en/
[52] “Arrests related to ‘Tejen case’ are underway in Turkmenistan,” Chronicles of Turkmenistan, 15 April 2015, http://www.chrono-tm.org/en/2015/04/arrests-related-to-tejen-case-are-underway-in-turkmenistan/
[53] Azatlyk TW, “Aşgabatda protest boldy” [Protest takes place in Ashgabat], 23 August 2014
[54] “The Disappeared in Turkmenistan,” Prove they are Alive!, 2014, http://provetheyarealive.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/FINAL-Disappeared-Report-September-2014-Compressed.pdf
[55] “The Ovadan Depe Prison: Medieval Torture in Modern Turkmenistan,” Prove they are Alive!, 2014, http://provetheyarealive.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/FInal-O-D-Report-September-2014-compressed.pdf
[56] “Yolly Kurbanmuradov dies,” Chronicles of Turkmenistan, 8 December 2015, http://www.chrono-tm.org/en/2015/12/yolly-kurbanmuradov-dies/
[57] Personal communication with several applicants who were refused exit and conscripted to the army instead.
[58] “Turkmenistan: the number of travel bans is on the riser” [sic], Chronicles of Turkmenistan, 3 November 2015 http://www.chrono-tm.org/en/2015/11/turkmenistan-the-number-of-travel-bans-is-on-the-riser/
[59] Fergana news agency, “Туркменистан: Президент запретил въезд и выезд из страны людей, внесенных в «черный список»” [Turkmenistan: The President has refused entrance and exit from Turkmenistan to those listed on a “black list”], 29 July 2010, http://www.fergananews.com/news.php?id=15276; “Туркменистан: В аэропорту Ашхабада пассажиров массово снимают с рейсов без объяснения причин” [Turkmenistan: In the aeroport of Ashgabad passengers are taken off their flights en masse without any explanation] 3 November 2015, http://www.fergananews.com/news/24090.
[60] “Матвиенко: РФ и Туркмения урегулируют вопрос с двойным гражданством” [Matvienko: Russia and Turkmenistan will solve the question on the dual citizenship], RIA Novosti, 12 December 2015, http://ria.ru/politics/20151212/1340957556.html
[61] Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 2015, https://www.transparency.org/cpi2015#results-table
[62] Paul Goble, “Unpublished Census Provides Rare and Unvarnished Look at Turkmenistan,” 10 February 2015, http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=43529&cHash=e285a27f408286923c9b4c0ab99ce085#.Vf6Gzd-qqko
[63] Bradley Jardine, “Offshore Turkmenistan: 'Sultanism' in the Construction Industry: Ashgabat’s construction boom benefits a very select few”, 12 September 2015 http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/offshore-turkmenistan-sultanism-in-the-construction-industry/
[64] “Even for Favored Turks, Turkmenistan is a Risky Investment,” Eurasianet, 20 May 2015, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/73521
[65] “Report: German Energy Company to Pull Out of Turkmenistan,” Eurasianet, 27 October 2015, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/75761
[66] “Turkmenistan’s Opaque Health Care System,” Doctors without Borders, April 2010, http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/sites/usa/files/MSF-Turkmenistan-Opaque-Health-System.pdf
[67] Annette Bohr, “Turkmenistan: Power, Politics and Petro-Authoritarianism,” Chatham House, March 2016 https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/publications/research/2016-03-08-turkmenistan-bohr.pdf
[68] “Country Report: Turkmenistan,” US State Department Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, http://www.state.gov/j/inl/rls/nrcrpt/2015/vol1/239022.htm
Nations in Transit 2016 - Latvia (Periodical Report, English)