Document #1300935
Freedom House (Author)
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Democratic Governance | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 7.00 |
Electoral Process | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 |
Civil Society | 5.00 | 5.50 | 5.75 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.50 |
Independent Media | 6.25 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 |
Local Democratic Governance | 5.75 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
Judicial Framework and Independence | 5.75 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.75 |
Corruption | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.50 |
Democracy Score | 5.96 | 6.07 | 6.14 | 6.14 | 6.14 | 6.18 | 6.25 | 6.32 | 6.39 | 6.54 |
NOTE: The ratings reflect the consensus of Freedom House, its academic advisers, and the author(s) of this report. If consensus cannot be reached, Freedom House is responsible for the final ratings. The ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The Democracy Score is an average of ratings for the categories tracked in a given year. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the author(s).
Tajikistan increasingly resembles a one-party state. The ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), led by President Emomali Rahmon, dominated parliamentary elections held in March 2015. Tajikistan’s post-independence elections have been marred by corruption and the intimidation of opposition candidates, and these elections were no different. In the run-up to the election, the state media smeared the opposition parties, and the security services harassed candidates. On election day itself, observers recorded a number of violations, including multiple voting and ballot stuffing.
The country’s leading opposition group, the Islamic Renaissance Party (IRPT), lost its two seats in the parliament in the elections. Following their defeat, party deputies began “voluntarily” resigning under pressure from local officials. Accused of fraud by the state media, party leader Muhiddin Kabiri remained outside of the country from April onwards. Finally, after years of pressure on the party, in a statement on 28 August the Ministry of Justice banned the IRPT, citing its lack of popular support and organization of illegal religious activities. The Ministry of Interior then blamed the party for a series of armed incidents in and around Dushanbe in early September, designating it a terrorist group. Security services arrested approximately 200 members of the IRPT from September onwards.
The government also took repressive action against other opposition movements. In January, Russian authorities extradited Youth for the Revival of Tajikistan leader Maksud Ibragimov. A leader of the opposition movement Group 24 was gunned down in Istanbul in 2015, with many suspecting the government’s hand in the killing, and other party members are still being detained in Russia. Lawyers defending opposition members in Tajikistan have been detained and prosecuted. A court sentenced Shuhrat Qudratov, who defended jailed former minister of industry Zaid Saidov, to nine years in prison in January for bribing judges. Human rights lawyer Buzurgmehr Yorov was arrested in September just days after revealing that IRPT deputies had been tortured in detention.
Influenced by Russian thinking following events in Ukraine, the Tajik authorities continue to view civil society as a potential threat to regime security and social stability. A “foreign agents” bill similar to Russia’s 2012 legislation passed into law in early 2015. The new law requires non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to gain approval from the government for any projects supported by external donors. While the implementation of the law remains inconsistent, it constitutes a further restriction on the activities of civil society in the country. Under the cover of a fight against extremism, the government continued to restrict the activities of outwardly religious citizens. Cases of police shaving men with beards and forcing women to remove their hijabs generated lively discussion on social media. The government continued to restrict free speech and block critical websites in 2015. Most journalists exercise self-censorship, and the media environment favors outlets linked to the state.
From traffic police soliciting small bribes to multi-million dollar embezzlement, corruption and cronyism pervade all levels of Tajik society. Corrupt officials control key public economic assets such as the Talco aluminum smelter and have created personal slush funds by diverting profits to offshore accounts. Even though a 2009 audit of the National Bank by Ernst and Young found that National Bank chief Muradali Alimardon had taken $550 million in undeclared loans, new evidence from 2015 suggested that he had managed to take an additional $120 million since then. While officials act with impunity, the government uses corruption charges to neutralize its opponents.
Tajikistan remains the poorest country in postcommunist Eurasia. Money sent back from migrants working outside of the country comprises over half of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). With Russia’s economic recession, these remittances fell sharply in 2015, making life even more difficult for many Tajik households.
Score Changes:
As a result, Tajikistan’s Democracy Score declined from 6.39 to 6.54.
Outlook for 2016: Even as it bans leading opposition movements, the government remains securely entrenched in power. President Rahmon’s current term is due to run until 2020 and, with his new position of “leader of the nation,” he will likely stay in control longer than that. The regime will continue to repress both secular and religious opposition in 2016. With remittances sent back from migrant laborers in Russia drying up, Tajik households will feel the strain in 2016. Unemployment will increase as thousands of migrants return home with limited prospects of finding work. Faced with dwindling economic fortunes and an increasingly authoritarian regime, disillusionment with the state of affairs will only grow in the coming year
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 7.00 |
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 |
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5.00 | 5.50 | 5.75 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.50 |
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6.25 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 |
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5.75 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5.75 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.75 |
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.50 |
Author: Edward Lemon
Edward Lemon is a doctoral candidate at the University of Exeter. In his research, he examines the politics of migration, security and religion in Tajikistan. He has conducted extensive fieldwork in Tajikistan and Russia.
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[13] “Кувватова убили по заданию рахмона?” [Was Kuvvatov killed on the orders of Rahmon?], Politrus, 6 March 2015, http://www.politrus.com/2015/03/06/umarali-kuvvatov-3/
[14] David Trilling, “Tajikistan: Migrant remittances now exceed half of GDP,” EurasiaNet.org, 15 April 2014, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/68272
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[16] Ayaz Yuldashev, "Central Electoral Commission releases the final election results,” Asia-Plus, 12 March 2015, http://news.tj/en/news/central-electoral-commission-releases-final-parli...
[17] “Although Tajikistan's parliamentary elections provided some political alternatives, campaign space was restricted and a fair count could not be guaranteed, international observers say,” Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), 2 March 2015, http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/tajikistan/143311.
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[22] Edward Lemon, “Tajikistan’s clergy urges support for president’s party in weekend vote,” EurasiaNet.org, 27 February 2015, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/72311
[23] “Задержан не зарегистрированный кандидат в депутаты парламента от СДПТ” [An unregistered candidate from the SDP has been detained], RFE/RL, 4 February 2015, http://rus.ozodi.org/content/article/26829127.html
[24] “Джамолиддин Махмудов на два месяца останется в СИЗО” [Jamoliddin Mahmudov will remain in jail for two months], RFE/RL, 13 February 2015, http://rus.ozodi.org/content/article/26846445.html
[25] “Although Tajikistan's parliamentary elections provided some political alternatives, campaign space was restricted and a fair count could not be guaranteed, international observers say,” OSCE, 2 March 2015, http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/tajikistan/143311
[26] “Voting irregularities documented in Tajik elections,” RFE/RL, 1 March 2015, http://www.rferl.org/content/tajikistan-elections-irregularities-documen...
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[28] “Министр юстиции Таджикистана Р. Шохмурод: В вопросе НПО мы не пошли по пути России” [Minister of Justice of the Republic of Tajikistan: In this matter, we have not gone the way of Russia], CAToday, 10 June 2015, http://catoday.org/centrasia/20263-ministr-yusticii-tadzhikistana-r-shoh...
[29] “Глава ГКНБ Таджикистана Ятимов: Иностранные спецслужбы финансируют преступников для дестабилизации” [Head of the GKNB of Tajikistan Yatimov: Foreign intelligence services fund criminals for destabilization], CAToday, 13 April 2015, http://catoday.org/centrasia/19254-glava-gknb-tadzhikistana-yatimov-o-no...
[30] Avaz Yudloshev, “Tajik Authorities Will Control Grants Awarded to NGOs,” Asia-Plus, 10 April 2015, http://news.tj/en/news/tajik-authorities-will-control-grants-awarded-loc...
[31] Daniel Baer, “On Draft Legislation in Central Asia Impacting NGO Operating Space,” US Mission to the OSCE, 22 January 2015, http://osce.usmission.gov/jan_22_15_central_asia.html
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[33] Author interview with civil society representative in Tajikistan, 12 October 2015.
[34] “МВД: в рядах ИГ находятся до 500 граждан Таджикистана” [Ministry of Internal Affairs: There are up to 500 Tajiks in the ranks of IS], Gazeta.ru, 20 July 2015, http://www.gazeta.ru/social/news/2015/07/20/n_7393297.shtml
[35] "Бибиотуны" включены в «группу риска»” [Bibi-otun included in “risk group”], RFE/RL, 30 September 2015, http://rus.ozodi.org/content/article/27278806.html
[36] David Montgomery and John Heathershaw, “The Myth of Post-Soviet Muslim Radicalization in the Central Asian Republics,” Chatham House, November 2014, https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/field/field_docume...
[37] Catherine Putz, “No, Hajj, No Hijab, Shave your Beard,” The Diplomat, 17 April 2015, http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/tajikistan-no-hajj-no-hijab-and-shave-you...
[38]“Нашри гузориши "фоҳишаҳои сатрпӯш" дар Шабакаи аввал” [First network shows the report "Veiled Prostitutes”], Ozodagon, 10 March 2015, http://www.ozodagon.com/page,1,8,20596-aks-nashri-guzorishi-foishaoi-sat...
[39] “Суханронии Эмомалӣ Раҳмон, Президенти Ҷумҳурии Тоҷикистон, бахшида ба Рӯзи дониш ва 70-солагии таъсиси Донишгоҳи давлатии Кӯлоб ба номи Абуабдуллоҳи Рӯдакӣ, шаҳри Кӯлоб, 1 сентябри соли 2015” [Speech of Emomali Rahmon, President of the Republic of Tajikistan, Dedicated to Knowledge Day and the 70th Anniversary of Kulob State University Named After Abduabdullohi Rudaki], Jumhuriyat, 1 September 2015, http://jumhuriyat.tj/index.php?art_id=20642
[40] Bruce Pannier, “The beard-busters and scarf-snatchers of Khatlon,” RFE/RL, 19 January 2016, http://www.rferl.org/content/qishloq-ovozi-tajikistan-khatlon-police-bea...
[41] “Tajikistan: Europe and Eurasian Media Sustainability Index 2015," International Research and Exchanges Board, 2015, https://www.irex.org/sites/default/files/u105/EE_MSI_2015_Tajikistan.pdf
[42] Ibid.
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[44] “Tajikistan Profile-Media,” British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) News, 31 December 2014, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16201088
[45] “Tajikistan: Free press a casualty amid Dushanbe’s security sweep,” EurasiaNet.org, 11 November 2015, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/62364; “Tajikistan: Respect rights during security operations,” Human Rights Watch, 30 July 2012, https://www.hrw.org/news/2012/07/30/tajikistan-respect-rights-security-o...
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[52] Author interview with political analyst in Tajikistan, 13 November 2015.
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[58] Martha Brill Olcott, “Tajikistan’s Difficult Development Path,” (Carnegie Endowment, 2012), 16.
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[64] “Шӯҳрат Қудратов ба муддати 9 сол аз озодӣ маҳрум шуд” [Authorities imprison Qudratov for 9 years], RFE/RL, 13 January 2015, http://www.ozodi.org/media/video/26791258.html
[65] “Бывший адвокат Зайда Саидова вновь задержан” [Former lawyer of Zaid Saidov detained again], Nezavisimoe Mnenie, 23 August 2015, http://nm.tj/incident/33129-byvshiy-advokat-zayda-saidova-vnov-zaderzhan...
[66] “Ошкор шудани қаллобии навбатӣ дар ҳаҷми 45 000 доллар” [Detection of fraud in the amount of 45,000 dollars], MVD, 2 October 2015, http://mvd.tj/index.php/tj/asosi/8831-oshkor-shudani-allobii-navbat-dar-...
[67] “Задержан второй адвокат активистов ПИВТ” [Second lawyer for IRPT activists detained], Asia-Plus, 26 October 2015, http://news.tj/ru/news/zaderzhan-vtoroi-advokat-aktivistov-pivt
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Nations in Transit 2016 - Kazakhstan (Periodical Report, English)