A "senior Western diplomat" interviewed by the Far Eastern Economic Review, understood Pakistan's new policy toward militant Islamic organizations as based on a realization of "how profoundly the world has changed since September 11 and that Pakistan's strategic options [vis-à-vis Kashmir and Afghanistan] were now all nullified" (24 Jan. 2002). This comment follows a "nationwide dragnet ordered by President Pervez Musharraf ... aimed at defusing the military standoff with India" (Chicago Tribune 15 Jan. 2002). On 13 January 2002, the government banned five groups including Lashkar-e-Taiba (LT), Jaish-e-Muhammad (JM), Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), Tehrik-e-Jafria Pakistan (TJP) and Tahrik-e-Nifaz-e-Sariat-e-Muhammadi (TNSM) (Dawn 16 Jan. 2002a; The News International 16 Jan. 2002a; Shia News.com 12 Jan. 2002). Unlike the others, TJP is a Shia organization whose banning was understood by "Shias in Pakistan as... only to keep a balance between the two [Sunni and Shia] rivals...." (ibid.). These groups join Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Sipah-e-Mohammad, both of which were banned on 14 August 2001 in an effort to stop ethnic and sectarian violence (Dawn 13 Jan. 2002; AP 14 Aug. 2001).

Background information on the SSP is available, inter alia, in PAK38127.E of 3 December 2001, PAK37990.E of 14 November 2001 and PAK37166.E of 3 July 2001; on TNSM in PAK35733.E of 7 December 2000, and on TJP in PAK37755.E of 8 November 2001 and PAK32705.E of 16 August 1999. Please see also PAK38227.E of 12 February 2002 concerning the Pakistani state and the use of the fatwa by extremist groups to incite violence.

The News International reported "the government considered the banned organisations including the SSP and TJP as terrorist organisations and, therefore, they were banned under the Anti-Terrorism Act" (16 Jan. 2002b). First introduced in 1997, this Act was revised by Musharraf in August 2001, granting "additional powers to the judiciary and the police...." (San Diego Union Tribune 14 Aug. 2001). The invocation of the Anti-Terrorism Act

entailed a number of measures, including sealing of the office, freezing of accounts and seizure of all of their literature, posters, banners and other projection materials.

It said publication, printing or dissemination of any press statements, press conference or public utterances by or on behalf of or in support of a banned organization would also be prohibited.

... The notification directed the five organizations to submit all accounts of their income and expenditure on their political and social welfare activities and also disclose all funding sources.

... The State Bank of Pakistan asked on Tuesday the chief executives of all banks/non-bank financial institutions to immediately freeze the accounts of Lashkar-i-Taiba, Jaish-i-Mohammad, Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan, Tehrik-i-Jafria Pakistan, and Tehrik Nifaz Shariat-i-Mohammadi (Dawn 16 Jan. 2002a).

As the Guardian reported on 14 January 2002, in the wake of Musharraf's announced crackdown on and banning of militants, many "have started moving their offices to Pakistani Kashmir in an attempt to escape arrest...." Ahmed Rashid argues in Far Eastern Economic Review that by

January 14, the government had shut down 470 offices of these groups and arrested more than 1,400 people in a crackdown. The Interior Ministry also announced that "no banned party can operate under a new name," a normal ploy in the past when the United States accused groups of terrorism. "The moment they try and do that we will go after them and smoke them out," a ministry spokesman told reporters on January 14 (24 Jan. 2002).

Rashid's reported numbers differ from those found in other reports. The Associated Press reported on 15 January 2002 that "nearly 1,500 extremists" were detained. Susan Milligan of the Boston Globe reports "1,957 people [taken] into custody" and "the closing of 615 offices ... affiliated with any of the five militant groups..." (17 Jan. 2002). These latter numbers are close to those reported by Dawn (16 Jan. 2002b). The Los Angeles Times reported on 29 January 2002 that "police have rounded up 2,500 people...."

In a year-in-review article for the The Herald, M. Ilyas Khan states

Since September 11, this entire jihadi regime has come under threat of extinction. The situation further deteriorated following the December 13 attack on the Indian parliament, prompting New Delhi to start war exercises on Pakistani borders. Pakistan has responded by arresting the leadership of both LT and JM. But in the corridors of the Pakistani intelligence apparatus, the debate on whether to immobilise these groups still remains inconclusive.

Meanwhile, observers are divided over how things will unfold in the coming weeks. One group believes General Musharraf will be aided by these developments to dismantle the jihadi regime and bring Pakistan's intelligence apparatus within the purview of the parliament. Others are not as optimistic. Writes Khaled Ahmad, a respected journalist and analyst based in Lahore: "There is no way one can conceive that the Musharraf government will tackle [the extremist agenda of the Pakistani state]. The state must reach its terminal stage, like the state created by Mullah Omar [former Taliban of Afghanistan] (Jan. 2002, 52).

"Pakistan's jihadi regime... is closely linked to Pakistan's Kashmir policy that hinges on the induced freedom struggle with Islamisation of India as the cornerstone of its ideology" (ibid., 51). This is reflected in Musharraf's February reiteration of Pakistan's historical claim that the Kashmir issue "is the result of an 'indigenous' rebel movement" (Washington Post 12 Feb. 2002). According to the Washington Post, in the past, this formulation generally served as a "cover to foment and supply the Kashmir insurrection" (ibid.). According to columnist Jackson Diehl of the Washington Post, Musharraf's "fiery speech reviving all the old Kashmir slogans-- the ones his military used before Sept. 11..." are examples of the leader "swerving to anticipate" potential repercussions (ibid. 18 Feb. 2002). Even so, according to the The Herald, "clearly the days of a proxy war in Kashmir are numbered even if they are not over yet" (Feb. 2002b, 76.)

Since the beginning of February 2002, the "campaign against the militants has slowed" (Washington Post 18 Feb. 2002). Accordingly, "some in Pakistan suspect that despite hundreds of reported arrests, [Musharraf's] crackdown has not been uncompromising, that many of the militants have been allowed to remain free in exchange for lying low" (ibid.). However, Musharraf's actions are lauded by US interests as "historic" and "one of the most powerful, meaningful... consequential speeches... heard... in this region for a long, long time" (Los Angeles Times 29 Jan. 2002). It is believed that "the extent of the current operation and assurances from the government that many of those taken into custody will be prosecuted under Pakistan's anti-terrorism law have lifted the crackdown to another level..." than preceding sweeps (ibid.).

More broadly, the Los Angeles Times reports that "although some moderates worry about a greater backlash and about Musharraf's resolve... they still view the fast-unfolding events as a watershed" (ibid.). Observers also foresee difficulties for Musharraf in delivering on his promises because "he has to work through a bureaucracy and judiciary that is riddled with the kind of fundamentalists he is trying to curb" (The Herald Feb. 2002a, 39). In effect, he is attempting to "upend more than 25 years of power gains by Islamic fundamentalists... and bluntly challenging the moral and political power of mullahs even as militant Islam is rising in popularity in the region" (Washington Post 20 Jan. 2002). According to the

Washington Post

Musharraf now faces the beginnings of a potentially ugly internal conflict that, unlike those he just fought against the Taliban and its extremist allies in Pakistan, might cripple him or at least constrain his campaign against terrorism.... But the political transition could overlay the battle Musharraf has declared between a moderate Muslim state and religious extremism with a more familiar contest between the Pakistani military and civilian elites -- and give the embattled extremists a crucial respite (18 Feb. 2002).

Thomas L. Friedman, in a opinion piece published by the New York Times is more optimistic believing Musharraf's speech as having " the potential... to be [a] mind-set-shattering breakthrough for the Muslim world..." because

for the first time since Sept. 11, a Muslim leader has dared to acknowledge publicly the real problem: that Muslim extremism has been rooted in the educational systems and ruling arrangements of many of their societies, and it has left much of the Muslim world in a backward state. But he also laid out a road map for doing something about it - not just throwing extremists in jail, but confronting their extremist ideas with modern schools and a progressive Islam (20 Jan. 2002).

This Response was prepared after researching publicly accessible information currently available to the Research Directorate within time constraints. This Response is not, and does not purport to be, conclusive as to the merit of any particular claim to refugee status or asylum. Please find below the list of additional sources consulted in researching this Information Request.

References

Associated Press (AP). 15 January 2002. George Jahn. "Pakistan Detains More Islamic Militants; Both India and Pakistan Say Troops Will Stay at Border." [NEXIS]

_____. 14 August 2001. Kathy Gannon. "Musharraf Declares War on Extremists, Bans Two Military Groups." http://www.uniontribe.com/news/world/20010814-1525-pakistan-ant.html [Accessed 11 February 2002]

Boston Globe. 17 January 2002. Susan Milligan. "2,000 Arrested in Pakistan Suspected Militants Face Long Detentions." [NEXIS]

Chicago Tribune. 15 January 2002. "India Aloof as Pakistan Corrals Hundreds More." http://chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0201150251jan15.story?coll=chi%2Dnewsnationworld%2Dutl [Accessed 11 February 2002]

Dawn [Karachi]. 16 January 2002a. "Ban on Five Outfits Notified." http://www.dawn.com/2002/01/16/top8.htm [Accessed 11 February 2002]

_____. 16 January 2002b. "Over 1,900 Activists Held, 600 Offices Sealed: Crackdown on Banned Religious Groups." http://www.dawn.com/2002/01/16/top9.htm [Accessed 11 February 2002]

_____. 13 January 2002. "Text of President Musharraf's Address to the Nation." http://www.dawn.com/2002/01/13/speech020112.htm [Accessed 11 February 2002]

Far Eastern Economic Review [Hong Kong]. 24 January 2002. Ahmed Rashid. "Tackling the Militants: A Leader Tries to Reverse the Culture of Holy War." http://www.feer.com/articles/2002/0201_24/p013region.html [Accessed 11 February 2002]

The Guardian (London). 14 January 2002. Rory McCarthy. "Hundreds Arrested in Pakistani Crackdown." http://www.guardian.co.uk/Archive/Article/0,4273,4334609,00.html [Accessed 25 February 2002].

The Herald (Karachi). February 2002a. Irfan Husain. "Can He Deliver?" 39-40.

_____. February 2002b. Syed Ali Dayan Hasan. "A New Pakistan?" 75-77.

_____. January 2002. M. Ilyas Khan. "Between Jihad and Terror." 50-52.

Los Angeles Times. 29 January 2002. Tyler Marshall. "Response to Terror; News Analysis." [NEXIS]

The News International [Karachi]. 16 January 2002a. "Ban Notification Issued." http://jang.com.pk/thenews/jan2002-daily/16-01-2002/main/main21.htm [Accessed 11 February 2002]

_____. 16 January 2002b. Ansar Abbasi. "Banned Groups can Seek Review in 30 Days." http://jang.com.pk/thenews/jan2002-daily/16-01-2002/main/main8.htm [Accessed 12 February 2002]

New York Times. 20 January 2002. Thomas L. Friedman. "Pakistan's Constitution Avenue." http://college3.nytimes.com/guests/articles/2002/01/20/895797.xml [Accessed 22 February 2002]

Shia News.com. 12 January 2002. Qasim Jalal. "Pakistan Bans Extremist Groups." http://www.shianews.com/hi/asia/news_id/0001559.php [Accessed 11 February 2002]

Washington Post. 18 February 2002. Jackson Diehl. "Pakistan's Thorny Transition." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A26136-2002Feb17.html [Accessed 22 February 2002]

_____. 12 February 2002. "Mr. Musharraf in Washington." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A60634-2002Feb11.html [Accessed 22 February 2002]

_____. 20 January 2002. Doug Struck. "Pakistani Loyalty to Radical Islam Tests Crackdown." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A8486-2002Jan19.html [Accessed 13 February 2002]

Additional Sources Consulted

Amnesty International

BBC

Chicago Tribune

Christian Science Monitor [Boston]

Christian Solidarity Worldwide

Dawn [Karachi]

-Department of State, Annual Report on Religious Freedoms

Far Eastern Economic Review [Hong Kong]

Friday Times [Lahore]

Guardian [London]

Los Angeles Times

New York Times

Pakistan Christian Post [New York]

Project Open Book

South Asia Analysis Group [India]

South Asian Terrorism Portal [India]

Washington Post

Internet search engines

Google.com