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Office of the United Nations Co-ordinator for Afghanistan

Drought and Displacement in Afghanistan

May 2001

1. The humanitarian situation in Afghanistan is becoming increasingly alarming as a result of the compounded effects of the worst drought in living memory and massive waves of population displacement due to drought, fighting and a combination of the two.

2. A year ago the assistance community developed a strategy for assisting drought stricken  regions of the country to provide aid actors and donors broad guidelines on priority needs and actions to tackle this crisis.  One of the main points set out in the general strategy was to assist Afghans inside Afghanistan and helping them to cope in their places of origin. While enormous efforts have been made, particularly in the Western Region, by the assistance community to reach Afghans in need before they became displaced, many were faced with no choice but to leave their homes. Missions undertaken by aid agencies in districts of origin indicate that those who do not leave are often the poorest and most vulnerable who cannot even afford to pay for the travel. The sheer magnitude of the population in need, coupled with limited resources and logistical constraints such as road access and security conditions as well as the lack of implementing partners, have significantly limited the collective ability of the assistance community to reach all those in need before they have no option but to move.  

3. Many Afghans have also migrated to Pakistan and Iran. While there are no official figures on the number of Afghans who have recently migrated to Iran, over 152,000 new arrivals have been estimated in Pakistan over the past five months. Based on surveys recently conducted among these arrivals by UNHCR and WFP it is clear that the overwhelming majority of those who recently arrived in Pakistan did so to escape fighting and persecution. In this context, the strategy to provide assistance in areas of origin should - in no way - be interpreted as limiting the right of Afghans, who are fleeing from the war and persecution, to seek asylum in neighbouring countries. This is particularly relevant for those Afghans who are fleeing from areas that are both drought and conflict stricken where the drought is only an aggravating factor in an already extremely precarious situation.

4. The effects of drought and fighting in some areas of the country are so intertwined that it is virtually impossible to make a clear distinction about the main motivating factor for displacement. Indeed, it is becoming less and less relevant to do so, as the displaced are extremely vulnerable Afghans in need of protection and assistance who will not be able to return to their homes unless security as well as access to - at the very least - food and potable water improves. Furthermore, increased guerrilla activities and human rights violations in recent months in various parts of the country have led people to leave their villages.

5. The World Food Programme estimates that over one million people will face an unbridgeable food security gap in the next two to four months, before the next harvest. Famine conditions have been reported in several districts in the Western region, in the North east and in the Central Highlands. Severe malnutrition among children and in some cases famine related deaths have also been recorded. Urban centres reflect the increasing strain of the incoming flows of IDPs.  In all but one of the six major urban centres, casual labour wages are no longer sufficient to meet the survival needs of households. The Afghani currency has lost more than 18 per cent in the exchange rate to the US dollar in the past three months. A WFP Planting Survey has indicated an exceptionally low level of crop planting.  If reasonable levels of planting include 75 per cent of normal planted areas and more, then only 30 per cent of provinces surveyed have achieved this minimum level. The survey also found that farmers were resorting to planting WFP food aid wheat. Low levels of precipitation in some areas may also affect yields.   In all regions, except the east and the northeast, farmers were failing to retain even 30 per cent of their sheep and goats. Combining both crop and livestock factors eight provinces are among the worst affected by both reduced planting as well as depleted livestock: Jowzjan, Kandahar, Zabul, Badghis, Herat, Kabul, Ghazni and Faryab.

6. In the next quarter of 2001, the assistance community will require significant additional resources

         to support and strengthen food security before the next harvest and the next planting season for the most vulnerable;

         to be able to assist those Afghans who are displaced and are currently in camps through the provision of shelter, food and basic services;

         to plan and implement return for the displaced and to ensure that conditions can be met for this drought not to replicate itself again in the following years.

In particular, it is most important that prospects for recovery are supported through major new funding in the agricultural sector, including in areas where poppy, a high return and labour intensive crop, used to be cultivated. Furthermore, considering that most IDPs did not have a chance to work their lands this year, it is expected that they will depend on assistance at least up through the following harvest in mid 2002.

7. The resumption of full scale fighting expected to occur later in the spring and during the summer north of Kabul, in the northern provinces of Takhar and Kunduz, and possibly in the Western Region will further aggravate the situation. In 2000 alone, over 200,000 people became displaced as a direct consequence of heavy fighting in the spring and summer and, to date, none of them has been able to return to their homes.

Following is an overview of the situation by region.

         Central Region

8. Although Central Region is not as seriously affected by drought as other parts of the country, levels of vulnerability remain extremely high.  Several hundred families have arrived in Kabul City after fighting erupted in Takhar province in the fall of 2000 and in Bamyan and surrounding districts at the beginning of 2001. Due to the military and political situation in these areas, IDPs have kept a low profile in the city and there are no clear figures available on new arrivals in recent months in Kabul City. However, it should be noted that nearly half of the 1.8 million people currently living in Kabul have been displaced there over the past six to eight years because of fighting in various parts of the country. Approximately 450,000 people in Kabul City, one-fourth of the total population, are currently receiving subsidised bread through the World Food Programme and CARE. Targeting female-headed households in the city has proven to be extremely difficult due to the July 2000 edict that restricts women’s employment.

9. The water table in Kabul is currently between one and two metres lower than last year at the same period. This raises fears that, despite some rains and snowfall, the situation for the next months will deteriorate further. Fall planting in some areas of the central region seems to have been at only 30 per cent of the level of a normal year. If the water situation worsens in Kabul City, as seems probable, the control of water borne diseases will have to be strengthened. However, most implementing partners in the water/sanitation sector in central regions are still waiting for funding. The combination of the impact of water borne diseases and chronic malnutrition will provoke, especially among the already vulnerable segments of the population, increased dependence on feeding centres either in the city or in some rural areas.   

10. It is expected that fighting north of Kabul will resume in full force within the coming weeks with ensuing casualties among civilians and further forced displacement towards the capital.

         Central Highlands (Hazarajat)

11. There has been an intensification and extension of the conflict and indications are that the situation will deteriorate further in the coming months. The military future of the region is more uncertain that it has been at any time since 1998. Eight districts of Hazarajat (Yakawlang, Bamyan, Kamard, Saighan, Panjao, Lal, Daikondi, and Darra Souf), with a combined population of close to one million people, have seen significant conflict in the last few months.  Atrocities committed against the civilian population, including the reported massacre in Yakawlang, have added to the panic caused by this fighting.

12. Internal displacement has been widespread. People shifted locally to remote places in the same or neighbouring districts, while others have fled towards Kabul, Iran or Pakistan. About 30,000 people are thought to have left the centre of Bamyan, as the area has been the scene of military build up and conflict throughout February and March. Migration has resumed, especially from the districts of Shahristan, Daikondi, Lal, and Panjao, with the approach of spring. Factors propelling the latest mass migration have been the combination of pessimism about prospects for agriculture in 2001 and the fear of future conflict and persecution.

13. The key effect of the drought in Hazarajat has been a loss of agricultural and livestock production, rather than through drinking water shortages. During the winter period, from the worst affected areas, there have been numerous reports of dependence on famine foods, of starvation deaths and of famine displacement. Directly hunger-related deaths have been reported from a range of districts including Ruy Doab, Saighan, Lal, and Darra Souf. The nutritional situation is complex and the nutritional crisis is likely to peak in the second quarter of the year.  Projections from autumn figures indicated that 34,000 children would be moderately to severely malnourished in the five most severely affected districts. Registration of 6,000 moderately and severely malnourished children was undertaken, for inclusion in a supplementary feeding programme. The winter emergency assistance in Hazarajat was narrowly focused on highest priority affected areas. In the spring and summer, as access becomes easier, it will become necessary to expand the assistance programme throughout the region and address more areas, such as Nawr and Ghazni. Full-scale emergency will continue in Hazarajat in the second quarter of 2001, as no locally produced food will be available until the harvest in July.

14. Recovery assistance within the region should focus on supporting livelihood strategies of those who stayed. Priorities for recovery assistance are as follows: continued support for local employment, through food or cash for work activities; increasing seed production capacity, and extending it to include the range of types of seed required in the differing agro-ecological zones; integration of kochi nomads into assistance programmes; monitoring of food security in areas where the nutritional crisis continues.

15. The high political profile of Bamyan has rendered humanitarian assistance in the region contentious and strong humanitarian diplomacy is constantly needed to reinforce the message that both sides to the conflict should respect the right of the vulnerable civilian population to receive humanitarian assistance.

         Western Region

16. Migration towards the city of Herat has increased dramatically.  During the first quarter of 2001, on average 75 families entered Herat every day; by the first week of April the daily average was 225 families (1500 persons); and by the third week of April over 300 families were arriving daily. There are now over 140,000 IDPs sheltered in six camps in Herat, with 100,000 in Maslakh alone. In addition to migration to Herat, a large proportion of the Hazara minority displaced in recent months has gone to Iran instead of staying in camps in Herat mainly, it is believed, in fear of conflict or persecution by the authorities inside Afghanistan.

17. Various governments, including the US, Norway, and Japan, in January carried out airlifts of supplies to the area, but need is outstripping supply. Shelter materials and/or the construction of mud homes remain a high priority because arriving families are again being crowded together with three families sharing a one family tent.  Sanitary conditions, especially in Maslakh camp, are poor although 1,200 latrines are under construction.  Once these latrines are completed, there will still be a shortfall of more than 2,000 latrines in Maslakh camp alone. In addition, 200 wells are needed in Maslakh, and there are no bathing facilities yet.  As summer is approaching, the implications of the lack of adequate sanitation for public health are obvious and raise serious concerns about the risk of epidemics. Registration of arrivals is underway in the camps. This will help to determine the specific rural areas and districts from which families are fleeing, which will provide an important planning tool in terms of targeting, on a priority basis for assistance, worst affected districts from which further displacement is likely to occur.  Since August 2000, WFP has distributed 22,000 metric tonnes of wheat in Ghor and Badghis Province. The displaced arriving in Herat are coming, at least partially, from areas that did not receive food aid. 

18. Rainfall during January and February in Kushk District of Herat Province and in Qadis district of Badghis province was reported as lower than last year at the same period. A recent WFP mission to Badghis province found that many families simply do not have enough assets to remain in their homes and that they have exhausted their food supplies and livestock herds.

19. While it has been commonly assumed that the majority of IDPs in Herat have been displaced because of the drought, in many districts of the provinces of Badghis and Ghor, from where most of the IDPs originate, there is frequent guerrilla fighting. High numbers of IDPs from particular districts often arrive after fighting is reported, making it clear that conflict triggered the migration.

20. Given the growing needs, both in the camps and the rural areas of western Afghanistan, the aid community will have to step up assistance for at least the next twelve months if a major catastrophe is to be averted.  Since western Afghanistan has been profoundly drought affected, recovery assistance will be essential to prevent increased dependence and further pauperisation.

         Northern Region

21. Armed conflict in 2000 and 2001 has dominated the scene in the provinces of Takhar, Kunduz, Baghlan and parts of Samangan, Faryab and Sar-i-Pul provinces, while drought continues to seriously affect life in the western provinces of Faryab, Jowzjan, Sar-i-Pul, and Balkh. Due to drought, conflict, or both, approximately 100,000 people are displaced across the north. A high rate of mortality, especially among children and young mothers, is reported from both conflict related IDP camps as well as from drought-affected areas. The displaced are accommodated with local host families, in public buildings, and in makeshift shelters. Conditions in these settlements are deplorable.

22. The recent escalation of armed conflict in Bamyan province has provoked the displacement of about 1000 families in the provinces of Samangan, Balkh, and Baghlan. Sporadic rounds of conventional fighting between Emam Saheb and armed groups installed on the islands on the Amu river have also resulted in the displacement of an estimated 1500 families from the western side of the district of Emam Saheb to the eastern side during January and February. Recently, fresh guerrilla clashes in Kohistan district of Faryab province have resulted in an influx of families into Maimana and the centre of Kohistan district.

23. Drought and its consequences continue to take a high toll on the majority of the population living in affected districts, mostly in the southern belt of the western provinces. Reports from the remote districts of Faryab and Sar-i-Pul provinces show that many farmers have accepted that they would not get a  harvest and have already left their livestock to graze the planted wheat fields. Given the serious seed deficit in the region, due mostly to reduced purchasing power of many farming families as well as consumption of locally available seeds as food by farmers, very few farmers have planted a spring crop. Planting is especially low in Jowzjan, Samangan, and Faryab. 

24. In the irrigated areas towards eastern side of the region (mainly Takhar, Kunduz and Baghlan), the total area under cultivation is between 35 and 45 percent of the total cultivable land.  Overall, yields are likely to be affected by the quality of seed and lower than normal precipitation.   However, where crops have been planted, subject to a minimum of two more rains in late April and May, experts believe that it might produce bumper yield.

25. Discussions have started among the aid community in the region to work out a recovery phase strategy for the drought-affected areas, an exit strategy for the conflict related IDPs and a contingency plan for further emergency assistance if the traditional spring and summer offensive occurs. As part of the recovery strategy for the drought affected areas, discussions have identified an urgent need to mobilise resources for buying back seeds from the farmers at harvest time in May/June for re-distribution to small and medium farmers for the next fall/winter crop. This would require cash (for FAO) to immediately develop contracts with farmers. The other immediate need is to provide locally available flax and sesame seeds to the rain fed farmers for the spring crop within the next two to three weeks.

         North Eastern Region

26. The majority of the original caseload of conflict-related IDPs in the northeast remained displaced during the reporting period as low intensity conflict continued around Taloqan and in Khwajaghar district. The host population in Dasht-i-Qala, plus many of the original IDP population, was itself displaced at the start of the year when the front line reached the Kochi river. Movement of additional IDPs from Taloqan into north Takhar continued throughout the period with a general increase in numbers throughout the region that reached over 18,000 families. 

27. The socio-economic status of the majority of Takhar conflict-related IDPs remained a source of major concern. The majority of the IDP population presently in districts east of the Kocha River had been successively and repeatedly impoverished by the conflict, conflict-related destruction, previous displacement, and the drought of 2000. This, and the limited ability of the host population to support them due to the impact of the drought, have meant that the majority of IDPs are dependent on assistance.

28. During late March a number of reports were received of famine deaths from Shahr-i-Buzurg and Ragh districts. Multi-agency assessments carried out in the areas recorded a high level of infant mortality (from one to ten years old) from a combination of measles, at times acute respiratory infections and malnutrition.  Chronic malnutrition is prevalent in the area and it has clearly been exacerbated by the present situation.  Adult mortality was reportedly limited, and restricted to the elderly and women. Food stocks in both areas have been generally exhausted and many have eaten their seed stock. Areas are now dependent for consumption on wild spring grasses and roots. Frequent cases of paralysis (from consuming “pattak” or “ghammu”) were observed in Ragh district.  The majority – an estimated 70 per cent - of the livestock assets from both areas have been liquidated either through sale or consumption.

29. Trade in the area has been badly affected as the region’s two main commercial routes have been affected by the conflict. Consequently, prices of many goods, including food items, have increased by as much as ten fold.  

30. Food wheat distributions by WFP among IDPs continued, with 13,000 families receiving a 100-kilo distribution (for two months) in February.  While the majority of IDPs remain housed with host families, approximately 3,000 families in north Takhar remained outside throughout the winter, mostly under plastic sheeting with lesser numbers under tents. Public buildings were winterised in Faizabad to enable IDPs to remain over the winter and 1,175 damaged houses were repaired in Khoja Bahaudddin to house IDPs. There were, however, a number of areas where IDPs were located which proved inaccessible due to insecurity, physical access or capacity and where it was not possible to provide any kind of assistance.

31. Food for work activities – both community and NGO implemented - in the worst drought-affected areas continued throughout the winter.  The most critical gap in the whole assistance effort in northeastern Afghanistan has been the absence of a large-scale programme to provide improved rainfed wheat seed.   As the planting season for spring wheat ends in March this means that the majority of IDPs did not plant anything this year and would conceivably require food assistance throughout next winter, even if they were able to return. Non-food item assistance may also be required following any possible return.

         Eastern Region

32. The closure of Torkham border has resulted in daily congestion of a large number of people who are fleeing war and drought. There is close and rigorous monitoring of population movements in Nawa as well as at Torkham crossings. An estimated 10,000 deportations from Pakistan since January 2001 are reported where people are brought to the border either early in the morning or late in the afternoon.  Moreover, due to border restrictions, there are large crowds of people, who are harassed by guards.  

33. The purchasing power of many vulnerable families for basic food items has decreased by approximately 70 per cent. An evident indicator is the high number of beggars, mostly women and children.  Despite an increase of 2.5 per cent in the daily wages, the labour market is continuously shrinking due to the stagnation of the economy.

34. The banning of poppy cultivation has made more land available for agriculture, and the productivity of wheat was expected to increase by 40 per cent compared to last year, if irrigation water was adequate.  Through the drought mitigation programme, the rehabilitation of irrigation infrastructure currently underway would enable 2,400 families to cultivate more than 7,000 acres of land with an estimated additional wheat production of 14,000 metric tonnes.  The programme has protected the livelihoods of 11,000 villagers in six affected districts of the region. Because of that, the internal displacement rate in the drought-affected areas was considerably reduced.

35. The assistance community in the east has agreed on criteria to identify three levels of vulnerability in order to better target its activities.   According to this “scale of vulnerability” it is anticipated that 60 per cent of the overall population is extremely vulnerable, 30 per cent moderately vulnerable, 9 per cent less vulnerable, and 1 per cent not vulnerable. Henceforth, it is expected that humanitarian assistance would focus more on direct, albeit limited relief supplies, drinking water and emergency health services. Assistance should also be geared towards strengthening coping mechanisms of the moderately vulnerable groups so that they do not join the ranks of the extremely vulnerable.

         Southern Region 

36. The emergency drought situation continues in the region and is expected to further deteriorate during the course of the year although precipitation in 2001 surpassed levels in 2000.  This would still be far below what is needed to sufficiently recharge the depleted aquifers.  It is expected that the traditional migration of approximately 15,000 kochi families, who normally spend the winter in the southern region and slowly return to the summer grazing areas in the north, will reduce the overall socio-economic pressure in the area.    However, the considerable reduction in purchasing power of the Afghani and the reduction of up to 60 per cent in labour wages in the past three months make life for Afghans living on wage labour extremely difficult. 

37. According to preliminary surveys completed in the region, there appears to be overall compliance with the ban on poppy cultivation.  While this is a welcome development, the inevitable negative implications on the livelihoods of an estimated 250,000 people - farmers, share croppers, daily labourers - who were involved for nine months a year in poppy cultivation should not be underestimated.

37. Furthermore, as many as 90 per cent of farmers in the region have incurred considerable debts last year to buy seeds and fertiliser, and it is expected that much of the upcoming harvest will be used towards repaying these debts rather than in investing in the next crop.

38. There are an estimated 23,000 families displaced in the region, the majority of whom are kochis from the Registan desert who are believed to have lost up to 90 per cent of their livestock. These kochis cannot follow the traditional migration patterns. Arrivals have been observed, albeit in a minor scale, also from Ghor and Badghis provinces.  Surveys among IDPs indicate that able-bodied men do not even have enough resources to cover their transportation expenses to the nearest local centres to look for daily labour.  In order for these displaced to return to their places of origin there is a need to strongly support the restocking of their livestock. It is expected that only 20 per cent of these families might consider returning to their places of origin this season; the remaining 80 per cent will require external assistance for the coming months and for their eventual return.

39. Free food distribution as well as Food for Work, FoodAc and Food for Seed has been used to support populations in need. Several interventions have also been carried out to construct and/or rehabilitate, where possible, drinking water wells,  karezes, canals, and 100 micro check-dams to recharge aquifers in the region. It is estimated that approximately 600,000 people have benefited from interventions in the water and sanitation sectors in the Southern Region.

Conclusions

40. The crisis in Afghanistan is far from over.  At present, declining socio-economnic conditions throughout the country have led to levels of vulnerability on a scale not seen before in Afghanistan.  The situation will continue to deteriorate in the coming months. However, the extent of this deterioration depends on a number of factors.

         As in previous years, the upcoming fighting season is likely to increase the numbers of newly displaced or re-displace currently displaced persons, most likely in the north, northeast, west, central highlands, and centre of the country.  Moreover, conflict may also affect the operating environment of aid agencies if access to vulnerable populations is further restricted. Furthermore, as repeatedly seen in conflict areas of Afghanistan, continued warfare could again lead to both targeting of civilians and intentional destruction of civilian assets.

         In addition to conflict, levels of vulnerability will also hinge upon agricultural prospects for the 2001 harvest.  The WFP/FAO crop assessment (due early June) will provide a clear picture of the situation in the agricultural sector.  However, early reports so far are not encouraging and indicate inadequate precipitation in some areas.   Failure to plant crops has been because of drought, lack of seeds and inputs, and of course because of large-scale displacement.

         Among the assistance community, whether UN agencies or NGOs, there remains an urgent need to scale up capacity further in order to improve work on the ground, including co-ordination and information and data collection, and to effectively assist a wider geographic area.

         While donors have increased funding, prospects for recovery remain dire unless donors are prepared to rapidly meet the needs for short-term emergency assistance, and especially for food and non-food items.  In addition to funding to help cope with emergency needs, donors must be prepared to invest in longer-term interventions. This is especially crucial if currently displaced persons are to recover and drought affected non-displaced are to be saved from further loss of assets and likelihood of economic displacement.  In particular, the needs of farmers and labourers who have given up poppy as a means of economic survival urgently need to be met.

Through the central and regional emergency task forces, the aid community is in the process of drawing up contingency plans.  As information about the next harvest is made available, a revised strategy to address the crisis will be charted out. The Consolidated Appeal, already increased to $254 million, will also be revised upwards.