27. Juni 2016

 

Ein allgemeiner Überblick zur Sicherheitslage in Afghanistan findet sich in unserem zuletzt im Mai 2016 aktualisierten Themensdossier zu Afghanistan auf unserer Herkunftsländerdatenbank www.ecoi.net:

·      Ecoi.net: Allgemeine Sicherheitslage in Afghanistan & Chronologie für Kabul, 11. Mai 2016
https://www.ecoi.net/news/188769::afghanistan/101.allgemeine-sicherheitslage-in-afghanistan-chronologie-fuer-kabul.htm

 

Das Institute for the Study of War (ISW), eine in Washington, D.C., ansässige Denkfabrik, veröffentlicht im April 2016 einen Überblick zu jüngeren Entwicklungen zur Sicherheitslage in Afghanistan seit Februar 2016:

„1. Militants attacked heavily fortified areas in Kabul City, launching four explosive attacks against security and diplomatic targets from March 25 to 29. ISIS Wilayat Khorasan militants also indicated intent to attack Kabul City by claiming two unconfirmed attacks in southern Kabul on April 6. These attacks will likely increase following the announcement of the Taliban militants’ summer offensive “Operation Omari” on April 12.

2. Clearing operations continued to displace ISIS Wilayat Khorasan militants from Nangarhar Province into other eastern provinces. ISIS’s militants reportedly moved to Sar Kani District, Kunar Province following ANSF clearing operations in Nangarhar Province in late March. ISIS militants also conducted their first attack in Ghazni Province north of Ghazni City on March 11 and reportedly continued recruiting in Ghazni and Zabul Provinces, including Gelan, Jaghuri, and Khak-e Afghan Districts in early April. Some ISIS militants remain in southern Nangarhar despite a significant increase in U.S. airstrikes and ANSF clearing operations, with some allegedly pledging allegiance to Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour on April 11.

3. ANSF retook Reg-e Khan Neshin District Center in Helmand Province with support from US airstrikes on March 28 after Taliban militants briefly captured it on March 15, demonstrating the effectiveness of ANSF operations combined with U.S. airstrikes. Taliban militants control seven districts in Helmand Province, however, and are contesting areas surrounding the provincial capital Lashkar Gah. ISW has updated this version of its Afghanistan map to reflect Taliban militants’ longstanding control of Baghran District Center in Helmand, which is now among ISW’s researched districts. The map now also reflects Taliban militants’ effective control of Kajaki District Center, as the ANSF is reportedly unable to maneuver beyond a fixed position at the nearby Kajaki dam.

4. Rival Taliban militant factions participated in large-scale clashes in Shindand District, Herat Province. Shindand District is a launching pad for militant operations in western Afghanistan. The district is currently a stronghold for leading dissident Taliban commander Mullah Rasul Akhund’s faction.

5. Rival Northern Warlords First Vice President General Abdul Rashid Dostum and Balkh Provincial Governor Mohammad Atta Noor conducted competing operations against Taliban militants in Faryab, Jowzjan and Balkh Provinces in late February and early March. Competition between the rival warlords intensified when Dostum and Atta’s supporters staged protests and counter-protests in Mazar-e Sharif and Maimanah Cities on March 22 and 23. Competition between these northern warlords reflects competition between President Ghani, linked with Ghani, and CEO Abdullah Abdullah, whom Atta backs, and challenges the legitimacy of the National Unity Government by strengthening militias conducting operations outside of government control.

6. Taliban militants recaptured Dand-e Ghori area, Pul-e Khumri District, Baghlan Province, returning to the area on March 24 after the ANSF conducted multiple clearing operations. Dand-e Ghori lies on the main road connecting northern Baghlan and Balkh provincial capitals Pul-e Khumri and Mazar-e Sharif and was originally captured by Taliban militants in last year’s spring offensive. Control of this area enables militants to attack Pul-e Khumri City and disrupt travel to Mazar-e Sharif. Taliban militants may have seized the area as a means of demonstrating Pashtun strength in response to protests and militia operations by Uzbek Dostum and Tajik Atta. The capture of Dand-e Ghori immediately followed protests in Mazar-e Sharif and Maimanah on March 22 and 23. Militants also attacked Dowlatabad City in late March in Faryab after Dostum’s operations in the province.” (ISW, 12. April 2016)

Der selbe Überblick enthält auch eine detaillierte Karte zur Sicherheitssituation in Afghanistan:

·      ISW – Institute for the Study of War: Afghanistan Partial Threat Assessment, 12. April 2016 b
http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/12%20APR%20AFG%20MAP%20FINAL%20PDF%20smaller%20FINAL.pdf

 

Ein Überblick des ISW zur Sicherheitslage Afghanistans in den vorhergehenden Monaten (bis Februar 2016) findet sich unter folgendem Link:

·      ISW – Institute for the Study of War: Afghanistan Partial Threat Assessment, 23. Februar 2016
http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/afghanistan-partial-threat-assessment-february-23-2016

 

Beschreibungen der Sicherheitslage in der Stadt Kabul sowie in 34 Provinzen des Landes mit Fokus auf den Zeitraum November 2014 bis 31 August 2015 finden sich in einem Bericht des Europäisches Unterstützungsbüro für Asylfragen (European Asylum Support Office, EASO) vom Jänner 2016:

·      EASO - European Asylum Support Office: Afghanistan Security Situation, Jänner 2016, Kap. 2: “Regional description of the security situation in Afghanistan”, S. 34-174 (verfügbar auf ecoi.net)
http://www.ecoi.net/file_upload/1226_1454492894_easo-coi-afghanistan-security-situation-bz0416001enn-fv1.pdf

 

Ein Artikel der US-Tageszeitung New York Times (NYT) vom April 2016 zitiert Bill Roggio, Herausgeber des Long War Journal (LWJ), einer US-Nachrichtenwebsite, die auf Grundlage öffentlich zugänglicher Informationen über Themen in Zusammenhang mit Krieg und Terror berichtet, mit der Aussage, dass das LWJ in der Lage gewesen sei zu verifizieren, dass etwa ein Fünftel des Landes entweder von den Taliban kontrolliert werde oder umkämpft sei. Laut Roggio handle es sich dabei indes um eine konservative Schätzung, und es sei wahrscheinlich, dass die Taliban in Wirklichkeit etwa die Hälfte des Landes kontrollieren oder stark beeinflussen würden:

„The Taliban have a significant footprint in Afghanistan, according to Bill Roggio, the editor of The Long War Journal, an online publication that is tracking Taliban control. Mr. Roggio has been able to confirm that about one-fifth of the country is controlled or contested by the Taliban, but he emphasized that this was a conservative estimate. ‘They probably either control or heavily influence about a half of the country,’ he said. […]

Taliban control has fluctuated over the past 14 years. The Taliban government collapsed after the American invasion, but the group regained control of multiple districts between 2005 and 2009, Mr. Roggio said. They withdrew from these areas after the temporary surge of American troops at the beginning of President Obama’s administration, but they have been reclaiming territory since 2013.” (NYT, 19. April 2016)

Derselbe NYT-Artikel gibt eine ursprünglich vom Long War Journal (LWJ) erstellte Karte Afghanistans wieder, auf der Distrikte eingezeichnet sind, die „von den Taliban kontrolliert“ (Taliban-controlled“) oder „umkämpft“ („contested“) seien (NYT, 19. April 2016). Laut LWJ stamme diese Karte aus einem Artikel des LWJ vom Oktober 2015 (LWJ, 5. Oktober 2015).

 

Wie das LWJ weiter erläutert, handle es sich bei den auf der Karte eingezeichneten „umkämpften“ Distrikten um solche, in denen die Regierung das jeweilige Distriktzentrum kontrolliere, es jedoch sein könne, dass die Taliban große Gebiete im Distrikt oder sogar alle Gebiete im Distrikt außer dem Distriktzentrum kontrollieren würden. „Kontrolle“ durch die Taliban bedeute, dass die Taliban den jeweiligen Distrikt verwalten und soziale Dienste und Sicherheit bieten und die Gerichte in dem Distrikt betreiben würden. Distrikte, deren Zentren nur kurzfristig von den Taliban eingenommen würden, könnten höchstens als „umkämpft“ bezeichnet werden. Wie das LWJ weiter schreibt, sei es wahrscheinlich, dass die Taliban über die von ihnen „kontrollierten“ bzw. die „umkämpften“ Distrikte hinaus in zahlreichen weiteren Distrikten Einfluss ausüben würden, insbesondere im Norden und Osten Afghanistans. So sei es wahrscheinlich, dass weitere Distrikte in den Provinzen Kunar, Nuristan, Paktia, Paktika, Khost, Logar, Wardak, Zabul, Ghazni, Nimruz und Kandahar von den Taliban verwaltet würden bzw. umkämpft seien. Doch da es aus diesen Distrikten keine entsprechenden Meldungen bzw. Nachrichten gebe, welche die Taliban-Präsenz belegen würden, seien diese auf der Karte nicht als „von den Taliban kontrolliert“ bzw. „umkämpft“ markiert:

„’Contested’ means that the government may be in control of the district center, but little else, and the Taliban controls large areas or all of the areas outside of the district center. ‘Control’ means the Taliban is openly administering a district, providing services and security, and also running the local courts. Often, the district centers are under Taliban occupation or have been destroyed entirely. The Taliban does not always hold the districts it takes. It occasionally will seize a district or the district center, occupy it and fly the flag, leave after a few days, then return at a later date. These districts are considered contested at best. The map will be updated as new information arises. While the map shows the districts known to be contested or controlled by the Taliban, it is reasonable to assume that the insurgents have a significant footprint in many more districts, particularly in northern and eastern Afghanistan. For instance, it is likely that additional districts in Kunar, Nuristan, Paktia, Paktika, Khost, Logar, Wardak, Zabul, Ghazni, Nimruz and Kandahar are Taliban administered or contested. But without a claim of control or news reporting to substantiate the Taliban’s presence, these districts are not included on the map.” (LWJ, 5. Oktober 2015)

In einem Artikel der New York Times (NYT) vom Oktober 2015 findet sich eine Karte weitere Afghanistans, die auf Informationen der Vereinten Nationen basiert und auf der die Distrikte nach Risikolevels eingefärbt sind:

·      NYT – New York Times: Afghan Taliban’s Reach Is Widest Since 2001, U.N. Says, 11. Oktober 2015
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/12/world/asia/afghanistan-taliban-united-nations.html

 

 

 

Quellen: (Zugriff auf alle Quellen am 27. Juni 2016)

·      EASO - European Asylum Support Office: Afghanistan Security Situation, Januar 2016, Kap. 2: “Regional description of the security situation in Afghanistan”, S. 34-174 (verfügbar auf ecoi.net)
http://www.ecoi.net/file_upload/1226_1454492894_easo-coi-afghanistan-security-situation-bz0416001enn-fv1.pdf

·      Ecoi.net: Allgemeine Sicherheitslage in Afghanistan & Chronologie für Kabul, 11. Mai 2016
https://www.ecoi.net/news/188769::afghanistan/101.allgemeine-sicherheitslage-in-afghanistan-chronologie-fuer-kabul.htm

·      ISW – Institute for the Study of War: Afghanistan Partial Threat Assessment, 12. April 2016 a
http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/afghanistan-partial-threat-assessment-april-12-2016

·      ISW – Institute for the Study of War: Afghanistan Partial Threat Assessment, 12. April 2016 b
http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/12%20APR%20AFG%20MAP%20FINAL%20PDF%20smaller%20FINAL.pdf

·      ISW – Institute for the Study of War: Afghanistan Partial Threat Assessment, 23. Februar 2016
http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/afghanistan-partial-threat-assessment-february-23-2016

·      LWJ - Long War Journal: Taliban controls or contests scores of districts in Afghanistan, 5. Oktober 2015
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/10/taliban-controls-or-contests-scores-of-districts-in-afghanistan.php

·      NYT – New York Times: Afghan Taliban’s Reach Is Widest Since 2001, U.N. Says, 11. Oktober 2015
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/12/world/asia/afghanistan-taliban-united-nations.html

·      NYT – New York Times: More Than 14 Years After U.S. Invasion, the Taliban Control Large Parts of Afghanistan, 19. April 2016
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/09/29/world/asia/afghanistan-taliban-maps.html