Document #1031619
Freedom House (Author)
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Democratic Governance | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 |
Electoral Process | 6.50 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 |
Civil Society | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 |
Independent Media | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.50 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 |
Local Democratic Governance | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 |
Judicial Framework and Independence | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 |
Corruption | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 |
Democracy Score | 6.39 | 6.39 | 6.32 | 6.43 | 6.43 | 6.54 | 6.57 | 6.61 | 6.61 | 6.61 |
NOTE: The ratings reflect the consensus of Freedom House, its academic advisers, and the author(s) of this report. If consensus cannot be reached, Freedom House is responsible for the final ratings. The ratings are based on a scale of 1 to 7, with 1 representing the highest level of democratic progress and 7 the lowest. The Democracy Score is an average of ratings for the categories tracked in a given year. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the author(s).
In 2015, Kazakhstan remained a consolidated authoritarian regime. The image-conscious government employs a host of western PR companies to burnish its reputation abroad, where it presents itself as a “young” and open-minded country on a gradual trajectory toward democracy. It capitalizes on its relative—if faltering—economic prosperity compared to its neighbors and promotes an image of tolerance and intercommunal harmony among its multiethnic population. Behind the spin and the veneer of wealth, however, political repression remains intense. In 2015, political freedoms continued to be heavily curtailed. No viable opposition forces were able to operate, the few remaining independent media outlets faced measures of intimidation ranging from libel trials to suspension and closure, and the country’s embattled civil society operated under intense scrutiny and pressure, with activists arrested and jailed on broad charges which are liable to subjective interpretation.
In April, Nursultan Nazarbayev, the 74-year-old president who has ruled the country for a quarter of a century, cemented his grip on power, winning reelection in a landslide with 97.75 percent of the vote. In the period since independence, elections in Kazakhstan have increasingly become stage-managed events designed to shore up the power of Nazarbayev and his ruling Nur Otan party rather than offer voters a choice about who rules them, and this election was no different.
Nazarbayev faced no genuine opposition challengers, running against two stalking horses from progovernment parties standing to lend a semblance of competition to the vote. They did not criticize Nazarbayev during the lackluster campaign, and at times appeared to voice support for the incumbent. International election observers found that voters were offered no genuine choice in the election and pointed to a lack of credible opposition in the country overall. Nazarbayev offered a half-hearted apology for the size of his election victory, but said that it would have been “undemocratic” to interfere with the results. His remarks suggested that he did not acknowledge flaws in Kazakhstan’s electoral process or the absence of opposition candidates as factors contributing to the scale of his victory.
Although Nazarbayev has previously spoken of the need to create a resilient political system that will withstand his eventual departure from office, in 2015 he made no moves to reform the highly centralized system centered on the powers of the presidency that he has shaped. In 2015, he announced a major 100-step reform program to fulfill his election manifesto pledges, which aimed to introduce greater institutional transparency and effectiveness. If the reforms are implemented in full and in good faith, this is a positive step that will improve accountability at many levels of public administration. However, the reform program contained no pledges of electoral reform to the super-presidential political system over which Nazarbayev presides without any functioning checks and balances. This system creates political risks for the post-Nazarbayev future, since it may fracture when he eventually leaves office. Meanwhile, the appointment of the president’s daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva as deputy prime minister in September further boosted the influence of the Nazarbayev family over the executive branch.
The centrality of Nazarbayev’s personality to Kazakhstan’s political system was highlighted in September and October, when the administration staged celebrations of 550 years of Kazakh statehood in a nation-building exercise. The statehood celebrations, new to Kazakhstan this year, appear to be an indirect response to Russian president Vladimir Putin’s August 2014 remarks that “the Kazakhs had never had statehood” prior to the presidency of Nazarbayev. The festivities fed the burgeoning cult of personality surrounding Nazarbayev, with the state propaganda machine depicting him as the founding father of Kazakhstan’s independence.
For the government, promoting a positive image of Nazarbayev is always a focal point of any national celebration or event. In 2015, however, it became even more crucial to shore up the president’s popularity amid an economic slowdown. A combination of low oil prices and economic downturns in neighboring Russia and China (both major trading partners) put pressure on the economy, translating into slow growth of 1.2 percent (compared to 4.3 percent in 2014) and a currency depreciation which hit living standards and public confidence. Nazarbayev enjoys genuine popularity among the public, which—under the heavy influence of state propaganda—credits him with years of rising living standards, political stability, and relative ethnic harmony. In the face of economic pressures that are likely to endure for several years, the government is determined to ensure that the public does not blame Nazarbayev personally for the downturn and to maintain his high levels of popularity.
The space for opposition politics shrank further in 2015, with the court-ordered closure of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan in August leaving no genuine opposition parties functioning. In recent years, the authorities have either closed or co-opted some parties, while others have split amid internal differences or abandoned their political activities in the face of official intimidation of leaders and activists.
Civil society remained under intense pressure in 2015. Restrictive amendments to Kazakhstan’s Criminal Code, Criminal Procedural Code, and Code on Administrative Violations came into force in January, placing further restrictions on public assembly and criminalizing the spreading of rumors, making it punishable by up to 10 years in jail. Maina Kiai, the UN’s special rapporteur on the right to freedom of assembly and association, concluded after a visit to Kazakhstan in 2015 that the government severely restricts civil liberties guaranteed by the constitution, including the rights to freedom of assembly, conscience, and expression. Other restrictive legislation adopted in 2015 included a new Labor Code restricting labor rights (passed in November), and a law on funding for nongovernmental organizations (passed in December), which effectively granted the state a monopoly on deciding which nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) receive funding and for what types of activity. The regime continued to wield a controversial law on religion adopted in 2009, fining and jailing religious group leaders and worshippers found in breach of its stringent requirements. In a positive step, the Constitutional Court struck down a bill passed by parliament that would have criminalized “propaganda” of homosexuality to minors in May.
Independent media outlets faced multiple obstacles in exercising their constitutional right to freedom of expression in 2015. The Adam Bol current affairs magazine lost a protracted court battle against closure in February, and a successor outlet called Adam was suspended on a technicality in August and closed down altogether in October. The independent Nakanune.kz website—set up by former journalists from Respublika newspaper, which was closed in a crackdown on independent media in 2012—came under financial pressure after one of its journalists was fined $100,000 in a libel case in June and then jailed in December pending an investigation into charges of disseminating false information. Websites and social media accused of hosting “extremist” content were blocked with court orders on numerous occasions in 2015, and the authorities also exercised legal powers acquired in 2014 to block websites or shut off social networks without court orders. The authorities also used the tactic of targeted blocking of reports rather than outlets, often—but not always—on grounds of allegedly extremist content.
High-profile corruption cases suggested that graft remained rife in 2015. Senior officials organizing the prestigious EXPO-2017 international exhibition, which will take place in Astana in 2017, were detained on suspicion of embezzling millions of dollars of state funding for the facilities in June, and Serik Akhmetov, a former prime minister and the most senior figure to face graft charges in Kazakhstan in many years, went on trial on embezzlement charges in August and was sentenced to 10 years in jail in December. In July, Nazarbayev warned that there were “no untouchables” in Kazakhstan when it comes to corruption, but, like other high-profile corruption trials in recent years, Akhmetov’s trial took place amid suspicions that it had more to do with inter-elite factionalism than genuine will to root out corruption.
No score changes.
Outlook for 2016: Nazarbayev is likely to remain entrenched in power throughout 2016. He is unlikely to undertake reforms to put in place the resilient political system featuring checks and balances on presidential rule that he says Kazakhstan requires to withstand an eventual transition of power. In 2016, Kazakhstan will face the same economic challenges that caused a slowdown in 2014 and 2015: low oil prices and the repercussions of a recession in Russia and lower growth in China, both major trading partners. Falling living standards may gradually corrode support for Nazarbayev’s regime. Major public protests with the potential to threaten the established order, however, are highly unlikely, firstly because many citizens will blame international economic turmoil rather than domestic policies for the downturn (a message constantly reinforced by the state propaganda machine); and secondly because Astana’s repressive attitude toward public assembly has instilled a fear of protest in many people who are wary of arrest and prosecution.
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 |
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6.50 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 |
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5.75 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 |
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6.75 | 6.75 | 6.50 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 |
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 |
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6.25 | 6.25 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 |
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 6.50 |
Author: Joanna Lillis
Joanna Lillis is a freelance journalist specializing in Central Asian affairs who has been based in Kazakhstan since 2005.
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[25] Aysulu Toyshibekova, “Акимат Алматы отказал в проведении митинга против девальвации” [Almaty City Hall refused permission to hold rally against devaluation], Vlast, 22 September 2015, http://vlast.kz/novosti/13159-akimat-almaty-otkazal-v-provedenii-mitinga-protiv-devalvacii.html
[26] “Ермек Нарымбаев арестован на 15 суток” [Yermek Narymbaev arrested for 15 days], Radio Azattyq (RFE/RL), 4 July 2015, http://rus.azattyq.org/archive/news-azattyq/20150704/360/360.html?id=27109339
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[29] Joanna Lillis, “Kazakhstan: Political Trial Fails to Provoke Pussy Riot-Style Outcry,” EurasiaNet, 10 October 2012, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/66032
[30] “Prominent Kazakh Opposition Figure Leaves Politics,” RFE/RL, 19 September 2013, http://www.rferl.org/content/kazakhstan-politician-retires-opposition-abilov/25111662.html.
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[38] “Kazakhstan: Two years' imprisonment for Astana Adventist,” Forum 18, 28 December 2015, http://www.forum18.org/archive.php?article_id=2136
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[72] Igor Savchenko, “Political prisoner Vladimir Kozlov placed in solitary confinement and has gone on hunger strike”, Open Dialog Foundation, 21 July 2015, http://en.odfoundation.eu/a/6706,political-prisoner-vladimir-kozlov-placed-in-solitary-confinement-and-has-gone-on-hunger-strike
[73] “Kazakhstan: Clear lawyer of criminal defamation charges!”, International Partnership for Human Rights, 14 July 2015, http://iphronline.org/kazakhstan-clear-lawyer-of-criminal-defamation-charges-20150714.html
[75] Guljan Kaliyeva, “Ролик «Пытка заключенных» прокомментировали в КУИС” [KIUS comments on ‘torture of inmates’ clip], KTK, 10 March 2015, http://www.ktk.kz/ru/news/video/2015/03/10/58159
[76] “Пытки обернулись для трёх полицейских тюрьмой на три года” [Torture ends in three years in jail for three police officers], Radio Azattyk, 23 July 2015, http://rus.azattyq.org/content/nikolay-sinjavin-delo-o-pytkakh-kazakhstan/27148384.html
[77] “President Nazarbayev unveils 100 concrete steps to implement five institutional reforms”, Kazinform, 2 June 2015, http://www.inform.kz/eng/article/2782614
[78] Paulo Sorbello, “Nazarbayev: ‘There are no untouchables in Kazakhstan’”, The Diplomat, 6 July 2015, http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/nazarbayev-there-are-no-untouchables-in-k...
[79] “Kazakh Court Begins Preliminary Hearing In Ex-Premier's Corruption Case”, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, 27 July 2015, http://www.rferl.org/content/kazakhstan-serik-akhmetov-trial/27154510.html
[80] “Экс-премьер Казахстана Ахметов приговорен к 10 годам лишения свободы” [Ex-premier of Kazakhstan Akhmetov sentenced to 10 years in prison], New Times, 15 December 2015,
http://newtimes.kz/obshchestvo/item/23495-eks-premer-kazakhstana-akhmeto...
[81] “Ахметов перешел дорогу Масимову” [Akhmetov crossed Masimov’s path], Nakanune.kz, 19 November 2014, http://nakanune.kz/2014/11/19/ахметов-перешел-дорогу-масимову/.
[83] “Ex-Kostanay mayor detained on corruption charges”, Kazinform, 9 September 2015, http://www.inform.kz/eng/article/2816061
[84] Gerard Davet and Fabrice Lhomme, “Vente d'hélicoptères au Kazakhstan : une enquête vise l'entourage de Sarkozy” [Helicopter sale to Kazakhstan: a query in Sarkozy’s entourage], Le Monde.fr, 7 October 2014, http://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2014/10/07/vente-d-helicopteres-au-kazakhstan-une-enquete-vise-l-entourage-de-nicolas-sarkozy_4501698_3224.html.
[85] Serious Fraud Office, “ENRC Plc”, news release, 25 April 2013, http://www.sfo.gov.uk/our-work/our-cases/case-progress/enrc-plc.aspx
[86] “Eurasian Resources Group seeks to draw a line under scandals”, Financial Times, 1 November 2015, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0132c21e-7800-11e5-a95a-27d368e1ddf7.html#axzz...
Nations in Transit 2016 - Kazakhstan (Periodical Report, English)