03.04.2002 - Source: International Crisis Group

Popular National Congress (PNC) ("Capturing the moment: Sudan`s peace process in the balance") [#6388],  [ID 12129]

"Even with growing economic and social problems, organised political opposition is ineffectual. The parties remain weak, and civil society organisations are only beginning to assert themselves after ears of being bludgeoned by the security organs. The government remains largely unchallenged, with the important exception of the threat still posed by Hassan Turabi’s Popular National Congress (PNC) Party. Turabi retains support among university students, but the lack of unity within Sudan’s Islamist movement weakens both him and the government. Turabi’s appeal is further undercut by the fact that an Islamist government, however imperfect, is in power, thus splitting the Islamist camp. Any further fissures and challenges by Turabi could weaken the government’s hold on power and risk the complete loss of state control by any Islamist group.33
Nevertheless, Turabi and his party are actively attempting to reinvent themselves as moderate messengers for a new era. He is focusing on the nature of future electoral coalitions and trying to get ahead of trends. Anticipating resolution of the conflict and opening up of the political system, Turabi is appealing to the majority African population.34 For example, despite his house arrest, Turabi has been writing about African liberation, emphasising his own African heritage, expressing disdain for Arabism, and comparing southern Sudanese as freedom fighters with blacks in South Africa.
Turabi is attempting to redefine Islamism as a champion of the underprivileged, rather than the middle and upper classes as it is perceived today in Sudan. He bills himself as the leader who can find a way out of the current logjam, arguing he alone has the standing to cancel Islamic laws if that would be in the interest of peace. “His articles are aimed at reassuring the SPLA that he is reconsidering his views, and that he can use his religious influence to resolve problems”, said one Sudanese analyst.35 However, it is unclear whether he has cut his links with former allies in a variety of international terrorist organisations, and whether he can diversify his funding away from Islamist elements in the Gulf. Furthermore, most political elements inside Sudan do not trust him."

Document(s): 02245sud.pdf
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