09.01.2001 - Source:

University of Maryland - Minorities at Risk: Risk Assessment ("09.01.2001 - University of Maryland - Minorities at Risk: Risk Assessment") [ID 5015]

"The divergent paths toward independence followed by the break-away regions of Georgia offer a good case study on the effects of leadership on political outcomes. Aslan Abashidze has been able to cooperate with both post-independence Georgian regimes and, despite his authoritarian tendencies, has delivered a better life to his people than the leaders of either the Abkhaz or South Ossetians. Adzharia has avoided protracted strife, and has been experiencing steady economic growth throughout the 1990s.
All this has occurred despite a number of risk factors that would suggest that Adzharia was at a high risk for ethnic conflict. The government in Tblisi initially was quite repressive, especially concerning the religion of the Adzhars; the group is concentrated almost entirely in one area, and has a high level of cohesion; there were serious armed conflicts in the area, which had the potential to "spill over"; there was a great deal of instability in the central government, which led to an intra-Georgian civil war; and finally, the various governments that have had jurisdiction over the Adzhars have been nominally democratic at best. But despite all this, the short and long term outlooks for stability and growth in Adzharia seem to be quite good.
Abashidze holds a pair of trump cards that ought to help him maintain stability and independence for his republic. First, the extreme instability of Georgian national politics has thus far encouraged Tblisi to make concessions to the Adzhars in order to avoid creating trouble with another minority. Second, Adzharia enjoys quite good relationships with Russia and Turkey. Abashidze articulates strong pro-Russian positions, and encourages Moscow to maintain a regiment (the 90th) in his republic. The presence of Russian combat troops serves as a convenient and powerful shield against radical agitators from Georgia proper. Turkey, the traditional protector of Muslims in the Caucasus, offers an implicit security guarantee to Adzharia, but more importantly is the region's best hope for economic development. Turkish-Adzhar confraternity is promoted not only by religious ties, but also by a community of Georgian-speaking Turkish citizens, many of whom have family ties with Adzhars.
The relative state of peace across Georgia today is in large part due to Shevardnadze's flexibility, pragmatism and general political acumen. His leadership holds the newly-federated Georgia together. However, Abashidze is rated as one of the most popular of Georgia's political figures and now is a leader of a moderate opposition to the ruling Georgia's party. The peaceful relations that Georgia and Adzharia have maintained since the breakdown of the Soviet Union could be jeopardized should Abashidze decide to seriously challenge Shevardnadze rule, or if he is involved in a protracted succession struggle.
Thus far ethnic relations within Adzharia have remained stable. However, Abashidze's coercive politics may someday provoke strong resistance, which in turn could destabilize both inter-ethnic relations in Adzharia, and its relations with Tblisi."

Document(s): 09.01.2001 - University of Maryland - Minorities at Risk: Risk Assessment